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German Index Future (FDAX) - Timezone -

Futures · Started Jan 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.2%
Max Drawdown
33.9%
Trades
261
Win Trades
61.3%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
13.6%

About this strategy

Name: German Index Future (FDAX) - Timezone -
Type: shortterm intraday trading
Position: long/short
Pyramid: yes
Enter: 8:00 am - 6:00 pm (Central European Time)
Exit: 8:00 am - 10:00 pm (Central European Time)
Ordertyp: market
Stop: dynamic stop, time stop, stop loss and other
Underlying: German Index Future (FDAX)
Market: EUREX
Symbol: DAX / XG (25.- Euro per point)
Intraday initial margin: 8.375 Euro per contract
Minimum movement: 0.5 point (12,50.- Euro)

Note:
- Maximum subscribers allowed: 10
- Trades between 1 and 4 contract of FDAX
- 100% automated, no manual intervention
- Initial stoploss are pre-determined
- Minimum capital are 10.000$ each contract
- Signals are sent to C2 via investox platform
- Expect drawdown of $1.5-1.8K each contract
- Portfolio money-/riskmanagement (12 single systems in one)
- Backtesting over 7 years
- System optimize every six month with newest data

Highlight:
3/15/13 - Systems with new Timezone 8:00 am - 6:00 pm
(Central European Time) was started
4/17/13 - Highest win ever ($ 1,575), with one contract
5/17/13 - Highest win ever ($ 2,735), with three contract
5/21/13 - Highest win ever ($ 5,365), with four contract
5/23/13 - NEW ALLTIMEHIGH ($ 121,192)
6/01/13 - Best month ever, May 2013

How to trade German Index Future:
Please understand that trade drawn downs and losses are expected,common,
and unavoidable. Please be diligent in reviewing this system (or any system).

Copyright notice:
A subscription to German Index Future (FDAX) - Timezone -
entitles one (1) person, the subscriber, to take the trades in
his own accounts. If you are sharing your account, or any
information from this site with others or trading others
accounts based on these signals, you are in violation of
copyright laws, subject to a penalty of up to $150,000 per
incident. In other words, do NOT share any trade signals or
commentary with anyone else. If you are trading others
accounts you must sign them up as well.

DISCLAIMER:
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20127.79.11.07.6-2.4-7.46.6-4.21.66.00.4-2.124.8
2013-9.40.13.51.515.5-0.9-14.3-4.9-2.8-6.3-2.6-5.1-25.0
20147.21.60.00.1-0.30.1-0.4-0.4-0.8-0.0-0.2-0.56.3
2015-1.2-0.2-0.60.3-0.00.2-0.10.20.1-0.4-0.50.5-1.8
2016-0.00.00.7-0.0-0.3-0.10.1-0.00.1-0.50.00.0-0.0
2017-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
2018-0.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.00.0
2019-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.0-0.00.0
20200.00.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
20210.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.1
20220.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0
2023-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
20240.0-0.00.00.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.0
20250.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.1
2026-0.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/2/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$80,000
Age179 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades261
# Profitable160
% Profitable61.3%
Avg trade duration4.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.9%
drawdown periodJune 06, 2013 - Jan 27, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.2%
Avg win$816
Avg loss$1,160

Ratios

W:L ratio1.11
Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Sortino Ratio-0.38
Calmar Ratio0.13

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life500.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-65.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity45.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)368
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,160
Avg Win$816
# Winners160
Sum Trade PL (losers)$117,204
Sum Trade PL (winners)$130,551
Num Months Winners80
# Losers101
% Winners61.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table177

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)243.07
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.05
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago4604

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.56

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades46.91
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.42
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats41.48
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.72
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.35
df32
t0.60
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio0.60
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms19
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error31
t(b)-0.54
p(b)0.70
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.05
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df32
t0.46
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.45
Sortino ratio0.44
Upside Potential Ratio2.25
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms19
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error31
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.70
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.05
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df968
t0.77
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio0.60
Upside Potential Ratio6.25
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms371
N negative terms598
N of observations969
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error967
t(b)-1.63
p(b)0.95
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.05
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df968
t0.67
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.57
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio6.14
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms371
N negative terms598
N of observations969
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error967
t(b)-1.61
p(b)0.95
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.02
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df171
t-0.56
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio-1.14
Upside Potential Ratio9.64
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms82
N negative terms90
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)-1.19
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.54
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)2.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.81
df171
t-0.57
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.97
Sortino ratio-1.16
Upside Potential Ratio9.62
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms82
N negative terms90
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)-1.19
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)2.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations969
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low104
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high142
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.76
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Number of observations1
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)235
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.63
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.57
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.85

Trading record

Placed 473 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XG H4long4Jan 27, 2014Jan 27, 2014$2,368
XG H4long2Jan 27, 2014Jan 27, 2014$1,948
XG H4short2Jan 23, 2014Jan 23, 2014($275)
XG H4long2Jan 23, 2014Jan 23, 2014($1,189)
XG H4short1Jan 17, 2014Jan 17, 2014$769
XG H4short2Jan 17, 2014Jan 17, 2014($1,966)
XG H4long2Jan 9, 2014Jan 9, 2014$1,880
XG H4long1Jan 6, 2014Jan 6, 2014$1,029
XG Z3long1Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013$756
XG Z3long2Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013($1,748)
XG Z3short1Dec 6, 2013Dec 9, 2013($1,740)
XG Z3long1Dec 5, 2013Dec 6, 2013($213)
XG Z3long3Nov 20, 2013Nov 20, 2013$303
XG Z3short1Nov 19, 2013Nov 19, 2013($772)
XG Z3long1Nov 8, 2013Nov 8, 2013($335)
XG Z3long1Oct 31, 2013Oct 31, 2013($185)
XG Z3short1Oct 30, 2013Oct 30, 2013$210
XG Z3short3Oct 15, 2013Oct 15, 2013($2,547)
XG Z3long1Oct 9, 2013Oct 9, 2013($1,999)
XG Z3long1Oct 2, 2013Oct 3, 2013($472)
XG Z3short1Oct 2, 2013Oct 2, 2013$101
XG Z3long1Sep 27, 2013Sep 30, 2013($2,054)
XG Z3short2Sep 27, 2013Sep 27, 2013$1,702
XG Z3long2Sep 25, 2013Sep 26, 2013$693
XG Z3long1Sep 25, 2013Sep 25, 2013$756
XG Z3long2Sep 23, 2013Sep 23, 2013($3,167)
XG Z3short2Sep 18, 2013Sep 18, 2013($1,298)
XG U3long2Sep 13, 2013Sep 13, 2013$502
XG U3long1Sep 13, 2013Sep 13, 2013$497
XG U3short1Sep 10, 2013Sep 10, 2013($608)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.