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FFX Limited

Forex · Started Mar 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.8%
Max Drawdown
8.3%
Trades
112
Win Trades
40.2%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
2.3%

About this strategy

This system is based on a strategy of scalping, however our goal is to capture larger movements. We will attempt to take consistent profits. If we feel there is going to be a large move, we will hold our positions and let the profits run. If there is a shift in direction, we will quickly exit. We try to keep our losses as small as possible. Limiting risk is our most important concern, followed by generating profit. Our goal is to be profitable in the long run, which can be achieved if our system is followed with discipline.

*Minimum required capital: $1,000 at 10% scaling.
*Minimum capital for 100% scaling: $10,000

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20124.8-2.35.90.46.7-0.9-2.20.00.00.012.5
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/8/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age176 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades112
# Profitable45
% Profitable40.2%
Avg trade duration6.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown8.3%
drawdown periodMarch 27, 2012 - May 22, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)0.8%
Avg win$649
Avg loss$292

Ratios

W:L ratio1.50
Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Sortino Ratio-0.46
Calmar Ratio0.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life452.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-452.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity5.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$292
Avg Win$649
# Winners45
Sum Trade PL (losers)$19,537
Sum Trade PL (winners)$29,227
Num Months Winners4
# Losers67
% Winners40.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table175

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)390.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.51
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago5115

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index2.62

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.26
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.31
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.65
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats25.41
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.26
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.03
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.04
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df34
t0.90
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio2.27
Upside Potential Ratio4.39
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms31
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error33
t(b)-0.94
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.03
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df34
t0.87
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio2.11
Upside Potential Ratio4.22
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms31
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error33
t(b)-0.93
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.20
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.91
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.03
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df781
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio0.86
Upside Potential Ratio4.42
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms719
N of observations782
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error780
t(b)-0.39
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.03
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df781
t0.87
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.64
Sortino ratio0.80
Upside Potential Ratio4.34
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms719
N of observations782
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error780
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6801493566947328
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.5190654926058e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations782
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low50
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high63
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-455487168
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)56
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.79
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.86
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 216 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD short400Sep 3, 2012Sep 5, 2012$52
EUR/USD short400Sep 3, 2012Sep 3, 2012($1,068)
EUR/USD short400Sep 3, 2012Sep 3, 2012$56
EUR/USD long400Aug 29, 2012Aug 30, 2012($746)
EUR/USD long400Aug 29, 2012Aug 29, 2012($674)
EUR/USD long200Aug 21, 2012Aug 21, 2012$2,066
EUR/USD short400Aug 14, 2012Aug 16, 2012$232
EUR/USD short200Aug 13, 2012Aug 13, 2012($202)
EUR/USD short200Aug 13, 2012Aug 13, 2012($162)
EUR/USD long400Aug 10, 2012Aug 10, 2012($488)
EUR/USD long200Aug 10, 2012Aug 10, 2012($298)
EUR/USD short200Aug 8, 2012Aug 8, 2012$250
EUR/USD long200Aug 7, 2012Aug 7, 2012$516
EUR/USD short400Aug 2, 2012Aug 2, 2012($514)
EUR/USD long200Jul 31, 2012Jul 31, 2012$1,072
EUR/USD short200Jul 29, 2012Jul 30, 2012$602
EUR/USD short200Jul 25, 2012Jul 25, 2012($278)
EUR/USD long200Jul 24, 2012Jul 24, 2012($240)
EUR/USD long200Jul 24, 2012Jul 24, 2012($410)
EUR/USD long200Jul 19, 2012Jul 19, 2012$962
EUR/USD long200Jul 19, 2012Jul 19, 2012($348)
EUR/USD short200Jul 17, 2012Jul 18, 2012$994
EUR/USD long200Jul 17, 2012Jul 17, 2012($434)
EUR/USD short400Jul 6, 2012Jul 12, 2012$3,834
EUR/USD long200Jul 5, 2012Jul 5, 2012($358)
EUR/USD long200Jul 5, 2012Jul 5, 2012($248)
EUR/USD short400Jul 3, 2012Jul 3, 2012($638)
EUR/USD short200Jul 2, 2012Jul 2, 2012($372)
EUR/USD long200Jun 28, 2012Jun 28, 2012($364)
EUR/USD long400Jun 26, 2012Jun 27, 2012($910)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.