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German BUND Sprinter

Futures · Started Mar 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.0%
Max Drawdown
67.8%
Trades
116
Win Trades
45.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
14.9%

About this strategy

The German Bund Sprinter was designed to trade the German BUND Future.
The system works in a 60Minute intraday scope in combination with an additional stop concept. The German Bund Sprinter is a couner trend system, which triggers enter and exit signals over a pattern based mechanism. The open positions are safeguarded by a well balanced stop concept.

The overall behavior of the system is supervised by a human system manager.
The money management is here a little bit "more aggressive". This leads to much better performance but can have also some draw downs in the meanwhile of trading.

The actual minimum size for one contract is about 17.000 USD.

The system was designed to be efficient in a long term scope, to achieve an excellent performance within a one year scope. Best strategy for this system is to run it over a long time period and just ignore the draw down phases!

Due to a negative correlation of the German Bund Sprinter to most of the standard systems, it fits perfect as "intermixture" for standard portfolios.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20126.29.919.4-34.14.55.0-9.64.210.6-0.04.9
2013-18.414.214.27.02.3-23.31.5-15.614.6-8.9-11.3-33.2-52.7
2014139.52.6-0.90.0-0.40.1-0.5-0.4-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.5136.8
2015-1.6-0.2-0.80.7-0.20.2-0.20.3-0.1-0.3-0.70.6-2.1
2016-0.30.20.50.4-0.4-0.20.10.20.1-0.60.00.0-0.1
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/25/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$17,000
Age176 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades116
# Profitable53
% Profitable45.7%
Avg trade duration4.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown67.8%
drawdown periodJune 05, 2012 - Jan 09, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)1.0%
Avg win$962
Avg loss$670

Ratios

W:L ratio1.21
Sharpe Ratio0.05
Sortino Ratio0.12
Calmar Ratio0.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life444.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-437.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$670
Avg Win$962
# Winners53
Sum Trade PL (losers)$42,184
Sum Trade PL (winners)$50,960
Num Months Winners27
# Losers63
% Winners45.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table175

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5925.17
Avg Position Time (hrs)98.75
Avg Trade Length4.10
Last Trade Ago4588

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.08
Treynor Index-0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.07
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades9.02
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.87
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats25.11
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.31
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.20
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df43
t0.69
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio0.88
Upside Potential Ratio2.08
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms33
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.02
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error42
t(b)-0.65
p(b)0.74
t(a)0.89
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.09
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df43
t0.36
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio0.34
Upside Potential Ratio1.50
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms33
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.01
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error42
t(b)-0.55
p(b)0.71
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.15
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df967
t0.77
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.42
Sortino ratio0.76
Upside Potential Ratio5.36
Upside part of mean1.05
Downside part of mean-0.91
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms255
N negative terms713
N of observations968
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error966
t(b)-1.81
p(b)0.96
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.08
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df967
t0.46
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio4.89
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms255
N negative terms713
N of observations968
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error966
t(b)-1.83
p(b)0.97
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6803717286264832
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)9.37383671997381e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations44
Minimum0.72
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.89
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.60
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations968
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.41
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low179
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high184
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.14
Median0.24
Quartile 30.32
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.24
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-252.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.81
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.81
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-397259680
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)583
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.29
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.53
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 14 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD long40Feb 6, 2014Feb 11, 2014$332
EUR/USD long20Jan 30, 2014Feb 5, 2014($43)
ES H4long2Jan 30, 2014Jan 31, 2014($1,391)
BD H4long2Jan 20, 2014Jan 31, 2014$4,126
ES H4long2Jan 28, 2014Jan 29, 2014($1,441)
ES H4long2Jan 26, 2014Jan 27, 2014($1,416)
ES H4short4Jan 22, 2014Jan 26, 2014$9,818
ES H4long2Jan 21, 2014Jan 22, 2014$159
ES H4short2Jan 20, 2014Jan 21, 2014($391)
ES H4long2Jan 15, 2014Jan 20, 2014($816)
BD H4short1Jan 20, 2014Jan 20, 2014($30)
BD H4long1Jan 7, 2014Jan 20, 2014$2,090
BD H4long1Dec 19, 2013Dec 30, 2013($1,473)
BD H4long1Dec 17, 2013Dec 18, 2013($74)
BD H4long1Dec 11, 2013Dec 17, 2013$178
BD Z3long1Nov 27, 2013Dec 5, 2013($1,833)
BD Z3long1Nov 19, 2013Nov 19, 2013($216)
BD Z3short1Nov 19, 2013Nov 19, 2013$298
BD Z3long1Nov 15, 2013Nov 19, 2013$298
BD Z3long1Oct 31, 2013Nov 12, 2013($1,560)
BD Z3short1Oct 28, 2013Oct 30, 2013($511)
BD Z3long1Oct 24, 2013Oct 28, 2013$265
BD Z3short1Oct 11, 2013Oct 17, 2013$222
BD Z3long1Oct 8, 2013Oct 11, 2013($620)
BD Z3long1Sep 16, 2013Oct 8, 2013$2,145
BD Z3long1Sep 10, 2013Sep 13, 2013$396
BD U3long1Aug 28, 2013Sep 5, 2013($1,538)
BD U3long1Aug 2, 2013Aug 13, 2013($1,494)
BD U3long1Jul 19, 2013Jul 24, 2013($1,636)
BD U3short1Jul 19, 2013Jul 19, 2013($41)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.