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Triple Play

Futures · Started Apr 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.9%
Max Drawdown
33.4%
Trades
91
Win Trades
40.7%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
2.9%

About this strategy

Triple Play is another segment of the Ag Plus trading method
that is capable of trading a wide variety of actively traded
commodities.
Only 1 contract of each of Soybeans, U.S. Bonds and a Dollar Index will ever be held at one time.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201214.436.334.526.711.4-22.0-0.80.00.0129.1
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/2/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,500
Age176 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades91
# Profitable37
% Profitable40.7%
Avg trade duration5.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.4%
drawdown periodAug 21, 2012 - Sept 18, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)5.9%
Avg win$1,643
Avg loss$773

Ratios

W:L ratio1.46
Sharpe Ratio0.30
Sortino Ratio0.53
Calmar Ratio1.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life436.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-314.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity40.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$773
Avg Win$1,643
# Winners37
Sum Trade PL (losers)$41,760
Sum Trade PL (winners)$60,788
Num Months Winners5
# Losers54
% Winners40.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table174

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7433.27
Avg Position Time (hrs)123.89
Avg Trade Length5.20
Last Trade Ago5100

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-5.70

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.45
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.75
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.55
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.85
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.29
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.36
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.83
df35
t1.47
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio2.96
Upside Potential Ratio3.73
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms31
N of observations36
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance-0.03
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error34
t(b)-1.42
p(b)0.92
t(a)1.99
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean0.28
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df35
t1.36
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio2.10
Upside Potential Ratio2.85
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms31
N of observations36
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance-0.02
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error34
t(b)-1.35
p(b)0.91
t(a)1.85
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.32
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df794
t1.99
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.27
Sortino ratio2.12
Upside Potential Ratio5.47
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms730
N of observations795
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error793
t(b)-0.26
p(b)0.60
t(a)2.00
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-45.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.28
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df794
t1.78
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio1.81
Upside Potential Ratio5.11
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms730
N of observations795
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error793
t(b)-0.21
p(b)0.58
t(a)1.79
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)-51.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.24
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6793578479091712
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.0499880519677e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations36
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.57
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations795
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low55
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high65
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.21
Quartile 10.21
Median0.21
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.05
Median0.10
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.29
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-375953280
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)28
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.11
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 122 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
S X2long1Aug 29, 2012Sep 19, 2012($3,002)
US Z2long1Sep 11, 2012Sep 19, 2012($2,977)
DX Z2long1Sep 4, 2012Sep 19, 2012($2,520)
US Z2short1Sep 3, 2012Sep 11, 2012$1,947
US U2short1Aug 29, 2012Aug 30, 2012($1,039)
DX U2short1Aug 16, 2012Aug 30, 2012$826
S X2short1Aug 23, 2012Aug 29, 2012($433)
US U2long1Aug 23, 2012Aug 29, 2012$271
S X2long1Aug 15, 2012Aug 23, 2012$5,165
US U2short1Aug 15, 2012Aug 23, 2012($1,823)
DX U2long1Aug 9, 2012Aug 16, 2012$68
US U2long1Aug 9, 2012Aug 15, 2012($1,894)
S X2short1Aug 12, 2012Aug 15, 2012$642
S X2short1Aug 1, 2012Aug 9, 2012$655
US U2short1Aug 1, 2012Aug 9, 2012$2,401
DX U2short1Aug 8, 2012Aug 9, 2012($133)
DX U2long1Aug 8, 2012Aug 8, 2012($134)
DX U2short1Jul 31, 2012Aug 8, 2012$246
US U2long1Jul 31, 2012Aug 1, 2012($633)
S X2long1Jul 27, 2012Aug 1, 2012$1,247
DX U2long1Jul 23, 2012Jul 31, 2012($1,442)
US U2short1Jul 26, 2012Jul 31, 2012$1,180
US U2long1Jul 23, 2012Jul 26, 2012($352)
S X2long1Jul 23, 2012Jul 23, 2012($1,237)
US U2short1Jul 16, 2012Jul 23, 2012($1,566)
DX U2short1Jul 23, 2012Jul 23, 2012($77)
DX U2long1Jul 23, 2012Jul 23, 2012($22)
DX U2short1Jul 16, 2012Jul 23, 2012($995)
S X2long1Jul 12, 2012Jul 20, 2012$7,567
DX U2long1Jul 11, 2012Jul 16, 2012($566)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.