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tradeWerkz I

Forex · Started Apr 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
16.8%
Trades
825
Win Trades
94.7%
Profit Factor
2.20
Win Months
6.4%

About this strategy

Fully-automated grid system, trading 20 currency pairs. Back-tested from 2001-2011, expected monthly gain is 5-8% (these results represent hypothetical backtesting!), average trade length should be less than 10 hours. Target profit is around 10 pips/trade; losing trades are added to when prices retrace, no fixed S/L but an emergency stop of 10% of the account balance per pair. Relatively low-risk; drawdowns can reach 10%. Of course these are goals only. No performance can be guaranteed, and the actual real-world results may be vastly different from these goals.

I strongly suggest to auto-trade my system since the signals it generates can be fairly rapid during volatile times.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20120.81.67.61.52.59.06.17.3-8.829.6
2013-4.6-0.8-0.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-6.2
20140.00.00.00.00.0-0.3-0.0-0.0-0.10.0-0.1-0.0-0.5
20150.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.00.1-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.1-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.1-0.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.00.0
20180.00.00.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.0
20190.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.0
20200.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
2021-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.1
2022-0.00.0-0.0-0.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.00.10.0-0.1
20230.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
2024-0.0-0.00.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
20250.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.4-0.4-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0
20260.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/9/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age175 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades825
# Profitable781
% Profitable94.7%
Avg trade duration8.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown16.8%
drawdown periodDec 07, 2012 - Jan 11, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$8
Avg loss$69

Ratios

W:L ratio2.18
Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Sortino Ratio-0.19
Calmar Ratio0.78

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life450.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-437.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity18.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated50.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$69
Avg Win$8
# Winners781
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,023
Sum Trade PL (winners)$6,581
Num Months Winners59
# Losers44
% Winners94.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table174

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)521.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.70
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago4982

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index1.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.59
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats94.01
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.18
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.88
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.36
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df39
t1.18
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio1.51
Upside Potential Ratio2.77
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms32
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error38
t(b)-1.20
p(b)0.88
t(a)1.62
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.84
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.06
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df39
t1.12
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio1.35
Upside Potential Ratio2.60
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms32
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error38
t(b)-1.18
p(b)0.88
t(a)1.55
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.06
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df889
t1.75
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio1.55
Upside Potential Ratio4.64
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms193
N negative terms697
N of observations890
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error888
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.72
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-16.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.06
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df889
t1.69
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio1.48
Upside Potential Ratio4.55
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms193
N negative terms697
N of observations890
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error888
t(b)-0.55
p(b)0.71
t(a)1.73
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-16.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-16.51
df130
t-11.74
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-13.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-19.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-13.09
Sortino ratio-11.98
Upside Potential Ratio1.28
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms108
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance0.00
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)2.67
p(b)0.36
t(a)-12.28
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-33.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-16.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-16.51
df130
t-11.74
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-13.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-19.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-13.09
Sortino ratio-11.98
Upside Potential Ratio1.28
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms108
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance0.00
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)2.66
p(b)0.36
t(a)-12.26
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-33.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.91
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations890
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low44
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high130
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.11
Median0.11
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations27
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-448016416
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)35
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.75
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.78
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.35
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-11.90

Trading record

Placed 1501 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/CHF long60Jan 10, 2013Jan 14, 2013$79
EUR/AUD short60Jan 10, 2013Jan 11, 2013($697)
GBP/CAD short30Jan 10, 2013Jan 11, 2013$20
GBP/USD short10Jan 10, 2013Jan 10, 2013$11
GBP/CAD short10Jan 9, 2013Jan 9, 2013$9
GBP/USD short10Jan 9, 2013Jan 9, 2013$10
EUR/JPY short30Jan 8, 2013Jan 9, 2013$0
EUR/USD short30Jan 7, 2013Jan 8, 2013$17
AUD/CHF long10Jan 7, 2013Jan 8, 2013$11
GBP/CAD short30Jan 7, 2013Jan 8, 2013$24
EUR/CAD short30Jan 7, 2013Jan 8, 2013$22
GBP/USD short30Jan 7, 2013Jan 8, 2013$22
USD/JPY long10Jan 7, 2013Jan 7, 2013$0
CAD/JPY long10Jan 7, 2013Jan 7, 2013$0
EUR/AUD short10Jan 7, 2013Jan 7, 2013$8
USD/JPY long10Jan 7, 2013Jan 7, 2013$0
EUR/JPY long10Jan 7, 2013Jan 7, 2013$0
CAD/JPY long10Jan 7, 2013Jan 7, 2013$0
GBP/USD short10Jan 4, 2013Jan 6, 2013$13
EUR/USD short10Jan 4, 2013Jan 4, 2013$19
AUD/USD long30Jan 3, 2013Jan 4, 2013$14
EUR/AUD short30Jan 4, 2013Jan 4, 2013$20
AUD/JPY long10Jan 3, 2013Jan 3, 2013$0
USD/JPY long10Jan 3, 2013Jan 3, 2013$0
EUR/JPY long30Jan 3, 2013Jan 3, 2013$0
CAD/JPY long10Jan 3, 2013Jan 3, 2013$0
GBP/USD long30Jan 2, 2013Jan 3, 2013$14
EUR/JPY long10Jan 2, 2013Jan 2, 2013$0
CHF/JPY long10Jan 2, 2013Jan 2, 2013$0
GBP/USD long10Jan 2, 2013Jan 2, 2013$9

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.