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Zen Fx

Forex · Started Apr 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.1%
Max Drawdown
40.1%
Trades
39
Win Trades
59.0%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
1.1%

About this strategy

Please check out the q&a thread in the forum of Zen Fx

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20121.820.4-21.1-6.2-6.6-7.1-5.70.00.0-25.9
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.10.00.00.0-0.1
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/20/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$2,200
Age175 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades39
# Profitable23
% Profitable59.0%
Avg trade duration1.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown40.1%
drawdown periodJune 01, 2012 - Sept 29, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.1%
Avg win$52
Avg loss$54

Ratios

W:L ratio1.38
Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Sortino Ratio-0.98
Calmar Ratio0.38

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life452.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-485.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity66.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$54
Avg Win$52
# Winners23
Sum Trade PL (losers)$857
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,185
Num Months Winners2
# Losers16
% Winners59.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table174

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1569.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)26.17
Avg Trade Length1.10
Last Trade Ago5192

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index1.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.06
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.44
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.29
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df32
t0.42
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio2.23
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms32
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error31
t(b)-0.91
p(b)0.81
t(a)0.80
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.03
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df32
t0.34
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio1.94
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms32
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error31
t(b)-0.90
p(b)0.81
t(a)0.72
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.03
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.35
df727
t0.58
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms702
N of observations728
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error726
t(b)-0.21
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.60
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.80
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.03
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df727
t0.50
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio0.44
Upside Potential Ratio2.31
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms702
N of observations728
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error726
t(b)-0.17
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-15.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6794502433931264
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)7.90968296489247e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations728
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.06
Median0.06
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-392334016
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)850
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.75
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.95
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 38 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CAD/JPY long10Jun 18, 2012Jun 18, 2012($0)
USD/JPY long10Jun 17, 2012Jun 18, 2012($0)
CAD/JPY long10Jun 17, 2012Jun 18, 2012($0)
EUR/USD long10Jun 13, 2012Jun 15, 2012$45
USD/CAD short10Jun 12, 2012Jun 15, 2012$21
USD/JPY long10Jun 14, 2012Jun 15, 2012($0)
USD/CHF long10Jun 11, 2012Jun 12, 2012($23)
USD/CHF long10Jun 8, 2012Jun 10, 2012($135)
EUR/USD short10Jun 8, 2012Jun 10, 2012($152)
USD/CAD long10Jun 7, 2012Jun 8, 2012$31
USD/CAD short10Jun 5, 2012Jun 6, 2012($11)
EUR/USD short10Jun 5, 2012Jun 5, 2012($49)
USD/CAD short10Jun 1, 2012Jun 1, 2012$42
USD/CAD long10May 30, 2012May 30, 2012$34
AUD/JPY short10May 28, 2012May 30, 2012$0
USD/JPY short10May 23, 2012May 23, 2012($0)
USD/CHF long10May 22, 2012May 23, 2012$42
EUR/USD short10May 22, 2012May 23, 2012$111
AUD/USD long10May 22, 2012May 22, 2012($53)
USD/JPY short10May 17, 2012May 18, 2012$0
CAD/JPY short10May 11, 2012May 16, 2012$0
GBP/USD short10May 14, 2012May 15, 2012$47
USD/JPY long10May 10, 2012May 11, 2012$0
GBP/JPY short10May 10, 2012May 11, 2012$0
GBP/USD short10May 7, 2012May 8, 2012$20
CAD/JPY short10May 7, 2012May 8, 2012$0
EUR/USD short10May 4, 2012May 4, 2012$65
AUD/JPY short10Apr 26, 2012May 4, 2012$1
AUD/USD short10Apr 25, 2012Apr 27, 2012($50)
EUR/JPY short10Apr 26, 2012Apr 26, 2012($0)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.