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Prudentius Praemium FX

Forex · Started May 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-21.5%
Max Drawdown
64.2%
Trades
39
Win Trades
69.2%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
1.7%

About this strategy

A semi-discretionary but nonetheless robust system based on trend following, taking advantage of momentum. A stop-loss is always used and we encourage subscribers to make good use of sound money management principles (e.g. in particular, do not risk more than a fixed percentage of your equity). Trades typically last a few days and signals may be broadcasted at any time. May take positions on any major or cross with good liquidity - we tend to avoid positions with a unfavorable interest rollover.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20128.43.00.4-2.8-12.5-3.30.00.0-7.7
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/14/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age174 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades39
# Profitable27
% Profitable69.2%
Avg trade duration14.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown64.2%
drawdown periodJuly 18, 2012 - Sept 11, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-21.5%
Avg win$64
Avg loss$112

Ratios

W:L ratio1.28
Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Sortino Ratio-0.75
Calmar Ratio0.17

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life468.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-104.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-21.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity31.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated34.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$112
Avg Win$64
# Winners27
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,344
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,720
Num Months Winners3
# Losers12
% Winners69.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table173

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)896.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)14.94
Avg Trade Length0.60
Last Trade Ago5062

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index3.37

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.11
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades9.19
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.71
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats5.50
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.98
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.42
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df16
t0.41
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio2.01
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms15
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error15
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df16
t0.34
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio0.54
Upside Potential Ratio1.83
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms15
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error15
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.56
t(a)0.45
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.04
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df499
t0.59
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio0.63
Upside Potential Ratio2.84
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms455
N of observations500
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error498
t(b)-0.64
p(b)0.74
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.04
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.44
df499
t0.53
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio0.56
Upside Potential Ratio2.74
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms455
N of observations500
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error498
t(b)-0.61
p(b)0.73
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.01
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-13.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-13.29
df171
t-9.44
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-16.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-10.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-16.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-10.18
Sortino ratio-12.79
Upside Potential Ratio0.88
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms171
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.03
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance0
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.49
t(a)-9.41
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-129.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-13.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-13.29
df171
t-9.44
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-16.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-10.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-16.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-10.18
Sortino ratio-12.79
Upside Potential Ratio0.88
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms171
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.05
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance0
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.49
t(a)-9.41
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-129.49
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations17
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations500
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high45
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations172
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.12
Median0.12
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1150
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.65
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 47 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/USD long40Oct 26, 2012Oct 26, 2012$13
AUD/USD short40Oct 18, 2012Oct 18, 2012($98)
EUR/GBP long40Oct 15, 2012Oct 15, 2012$21
AUD/USD short40Oct 11, 2012Oct 11, 2012$6
AUD/USD long40Oct 8, 2012Oct 8, 2012$14
AUD/USD long80Oct 1, 2012Oct 1, 2012$18
AUD/USD short100Sep 7, 2012Sep 7, 2012($561)
AUD/USD short20Aug 20, 2012Aug 20, 2012($45)
EUR/USD short40Jul 31, 2012Jul 31, 2012($243)
EUR/USD short40Jul 30, 2012Jul 30, 2012$22
NZD/USD short20Jul 25, 2012Jul 25, 2012($64)
AUD/USD long40Jul 23, 2012Jul 24, 2012$134
EUR/USD short20Jul 18, 2012Jul 19, 2012($85)
GBP/USD short40Jul 17, 2012Jul 17, 2012($77)
EUR/USD short40Jul 17, 2012Jul 17, 2012$72
AUD/USD short40Jul 13, 2012Jul 13, 2012$20
EUR/GBP short40Jul 12, 2012Jul 12, 2012$9
EUR/USD short40Jul 11, 2012Jul 11, 2012$8
USD/CAD short10Jul 10, 2012Jul 10, 2012($13)
EUR/USD short40Jul 10, 2012Jul 10, 2012$145
GBP/USD short40Jul 10, 2012Jul 10, 2012($66)
EUR/USD short40Jul 5, 2012Jul 5, 2012$188
EUR/USD short40Jul 3, 2012Jul 3, 2012$62
EUR/USD short40Jul 2, 2012Jul 2, 2012$78
EUR/GBP short10Jun 27, 2012Jun 28, 2012($73)
NZD/USD short20Jun 26, 2012Jun 27, 2012$5
CHF/JPY long40Jun 26, 2012Jun 26, 2012$0
EUR/USD short10Jun 25, 2012Jun 25, 2012$28
EUR/USD short10Jun 21, 2012Jun 21, 2012$37
GBP/JPY short10Jun 19, 2012Jun 20, 2012$0

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.