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Swingtrades

Stocks · Started Jun 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
99
Win Trades
62.6%
Profit Factor
0
Win Months
11.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20120.98.82.91.0-0.32.73.020.3
2013-8.82.31.14.7-5.22.3-14.55.9-14.8-2.9-9.40.2-34.9
2014-0.2-4.615.219.4-34.2-46.1-4.7-14.415.70.5-35.20.00.0
2015-33.4-98.6-7622.5-49.1-11.0-62.1-135.3-234.1-131.3-2.1-0.2-269.6
2016-23.4-0.3-52.4-2.6-7.9-5.4-15.5-2.9-1.1-0.8-2.4-1.6
2017-0.8-0.8-273.6-2.62.40.0-0.20.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-274.2
2018-0.30.10.3-0.1-0.1-8390.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-8375.6
2019-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-910.8-0.0
20200.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0
2021-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/26/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,750
Age173 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades99
# Profitable62
% Profitable62.6%
Avg trade duration101.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 02, 2015 - Dec 17, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$352
Avg loss$252,433

Ratios

W:L ratio0
Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Sortino Ratio-0.40
Calmar Ratio-0.92

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life476.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-73684.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$252,433
Avg Win$352
# Winners62
Sum Trade PL (losers)$9,340,030
Sum Trade PL (winners)$21,804
Num Months Winners16
# Losers37
% Winners62.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct6

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table35

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)146063.56
Avg Position Time (hrs)2434.39
Avg Trade Length101.40
Last Trade Ago4476

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-3.49
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.00
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.73
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.06
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats82.86
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.98
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-9.73

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean3573.32
SD6921.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df44
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio4408.23
Upside Potential Ratio4409.42
Upside part of mean3574.29
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD6921.28
Downside SD0.81
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms31
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion3573.32
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion6921.31
Covariance124.12
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)2276.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2576.07
Mean Square Error48729460
DF error43
t(b)0.51
p(b)0.31
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6812.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11366.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5712.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10864.58
Treynor index (mean / b)1.57
Jensen alpha (a)2576.07
Mean-2.55
SD8.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.31
df44
t-0.60
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.71
Sortino ratio-0.39
Upside Potential Ratio0.41
Upside part of mean2.68
Downside part of mean-5.23
Upside SD4.91
Downside SD6.49
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms31
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion-2.55
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion8.20
Covariance0.23
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.55
Mean Square Error67.59
DF error43
t(b)0.85
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.94
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta16.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-14.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.52
Jensen alpha (a)-4.55
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.47
Mean4039.27
SD6906.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df993
t1.14
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio2567.89
Upside Potential Ratio2570.71
Upside part of mean4043.70
Downside part of mean-4.44
Upside SD6907.21
Downside SD1.57
N nonnegative terms245
N negative terms749
N of observations994
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion4039.27
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion6906.17
Covariance-43.03
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-440.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4253.88
Mean Square Error47724312
DF error992
t(b)-0.63
p(b)0.73
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1817.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta936.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2738.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha11246.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.16
Jensen alpha (a)4253.88
Mean-2.52
SD11.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df993
t-0.42
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio-0.30
Upside Potential Ratio1.36
Upside part of mean11.51
Downside part of mean-14.03
Upside SD8.09
Downside SD8.45
N nonnegative terms245
N negative terms749
N of observations994
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion-2.52
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion11.71
Covariance-0.29
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.74
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.33
Mean Square Error136.38
DF error992
t(b)-2.40
p(b)0.99
t(a)-0.22
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.48
Treynor index (mean / b)0.92
Jensen alpha (a)-1.33
VaR(95%)0.70
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.77
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.51
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6760839017136128
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.33127730290384e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations45
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum13404
Mean of quarter 10.70
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41219.51
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.65
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high2681.68
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.31
Number of observations994
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum13395
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 462.61
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low201
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high162
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high95.70
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.34
Median0.56
Quartile 30.78
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.44
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396749504
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2086
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.92
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.93
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.92
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.19
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 177 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TNA long100Apr 28, 2014Apr 29, 2014$378
SPXS long100Apr 17, 2014Apr 28, 2014$8
SQQQ long100Apr 21, 2014Apr 28, 2014$23
UVXY long10Apr 22, 2014Apr 25, 2014$786
IBB long32Apr 11, 2014Apr 21, 2014$93
TNA long30Apr 11, 2014Apr 15, 2014$29
UPRO long70Apr 11, 2014Apr 15, 2014$27
SPXS long100Apr 9, 2014Apr 11, 2014$141
UVXY long1Apr 9, 2014Apr 11, 2014$169
UPRO long200Apr 8, 2014Apr 9, 2014$157
UVXY long2Apr 1, 2014Apr 7, 2014$207
SPXS long200Mar 31, 2014Apr 7, 2014$212
TZA long100Mar 25, 2014Mar 27, 2014$458
TZA long150Mar 20, 2014Mar 24, 2014$555
TNA long100Mar 14, 2014Mar 17, 2014$390
TZA long50Feb 11, 2014Mar 14, 2014($463)
TECS long50Feb 12, 2014Mar 14, 2014($59)
TNA long170Jan 24, 2014Feb 11, 2014$15
TZA long100Dec 18, 2013Jan 24, 2014($370)
TZA long95Oct 16, 2013Dec 11, 2013($496)
TZA long151Jun 27, 2013Sep 24, 2013($3,177)
NUGT long2Jun 27, 2013Jul 3, 2013$124
TNA long150Jun 20, 2013Jun 27, 2013$154
TNA long100Jun 3, 2013Jun 7, 2013$76
TZA long83Apr 23, 2013May 23, 2013($964)
TNA long100Apr 16, 2013Apr 22, 2013$29
TZA long13Apr 8, 2013Apr 16, 2013$47
S long400Mar 20, 2013Apr 15, 2013$468
JCP long150Mar 26, 2013Apr 5, 2013$87
VXX long6Mar 11, 2013Mar 18, 2013$45

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.