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Golden Phoenix Forex

Forex · Started Jul 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
22.9%
Max Drawdown
45.5%
Trades
97
Win Trades
82.5%
Profit Factor
3.10
Win Months
4.7%

About this strategy

Golden Phoenix Forex is driven by an automated price pattern analysis. It allows for zero trader discretion.
The system uses predetermined stop loss orders.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201210.8-0.0-8.79.14.15.020.6
20130.1-30.935.726.4-10.621.10.00.00.00.00.00.028.3
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/2/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age173 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades97
# Profitable80
% Profitable82.5%
Avg trade duration1.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown45.5%
drawdown periodFeb 07, 2013 - Feb 27, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)22.9%
Avg win$253
Avg loss$386

Ratios

W:L ratio3.08
Sharpe Ratio0.13
Sortino Ratio0.21
Calmar Ratio0.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life457.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)11.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)22.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity29.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss26.7%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$386
Avg Win$253
# Winners80
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,565
Sum Trade PL (winners)$20,242
Num Months Winners8
# Losers17
% Winners82.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table171

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2646.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)44.12
Avg Trade Length1.80
Last Trade Ago4832

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index9.29

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.15
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.15
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.41
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.83
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.72
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.32

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.45
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.00
df16
t1.25
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.68
Sortino ratio2.00
Upside Potential Ratio3.05
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms8
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error15
t(b)0.06
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.56
Treynor index (mean / b)5.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.36
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df16
t1.01
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio1.38
Upside Potential Ratio2.41
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms8
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error15
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.45
Treynor index (mean / b)3.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.52
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df499
t1.07
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.51
Sortino ratio1.41
Upside Potential Ratio4.92
Upside part of mean1.81
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms120
N negative terms380
N of observations500
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error498
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-62.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.35
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df499
t0.72
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio0.83
Upside Potential Ratio4.10
Upside part of mean1.72
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms120
N negative terms380
N of observations500
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error498
t(b)-0.10
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.72
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.20686006762865e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)1.60771998257484e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations17
Minimum0.74
Quartile 11
Median1.01
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.74
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations500
Minimum0.70
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low79
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high120
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.06
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.26
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.51
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)20
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.48
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.44
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.25
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.94
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 178 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD long200Feb 20, 2013Jun 12, 2013$442
GBP/JPY short300Mar 22, 2013Mar 22, 2013$4
GBP/JPY short200Mar 20, 2013Mar 21, 2013$11
GBP/USD short100Mar 15, 2013Mar 15, 2013$136
GBP/USD short100Mar 15, 2013Mar 15, 2013$220
GBP/JPY long200Feb 20, 2013Mar 8, 2013$25
EUR/USD long100Feb 20, 2013Feb 20, 2013($128)
GBP/JPY long100Feb 7, 2013Feb 7, 2013$1
EUR/USD short100Jan 31, 2013Feb 1, 2013$138
EUR/USD short100Jan 31, 2013Jan 31, 2013$78
GBP/JPY long200Jan 30, 2013Jan 30, 2013$1
GBP/USD short100Dec 27, 2012Dec 27, 2012$162
GBP/USD long300Dec 6, 2012Dec 11, 2012$434
GBP/JPY long200Dec 7, 2012Dec 7, 2012$6
EUR/USD long100Dec 6, 2012Dec 7, 2012($1,207)
GBP/JPY long100Dec 6, 2012Dec 6, 2012$2
EUR/USD long100Dec 6, 2012Dec 6, 2012$226
GBP/USD long100Dec 4, 2012Dec 4, 2012$66
EUR/USD long100Dec 4, 2012Dec 4, 2012$131
EUR/USD short200Nov 23, 2012Nov 27, 2012$185
GBP/USD short200Nov 23, 2012Nov 26, 2012$448
GBP/USD short300Nov 23, 2012Nov 23, 2012($864)
AUD/USD long100Nov 21, 2012Nov 21, 2012$7
GBP/JPY long100Nov 21, 2012Nov 21, 2012$1
EUR/USD long100Nov 20, 2012Nov 20, 2012$125
EUR/USD long100Nov 20, 2012Nov 20, 2012$57
AUD/USD long100Nov 14, 2012Nov 14, 2012($225)
AUD/USD long100Nov 14, 2012Nov 14, 2012$83
USD/JPY short100Nov 14, 2012Nov 14, 2012$0
GBP/JPY long100Nov 12, 2012Nov 14, 2012$3

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.