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Dow Jones Blaster

Futures · Started Aug 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.3%
Max Drawdown
29.5%
Trades
20
Win Trades
70.0%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
3.6%

About this strategy

Dow Jones Blaster is a proprietry trading system which involves timing and years of experience following the DJI.

Trades usually take place at the end of the stock exchange normal trading hours.

Trade duration is normally 2-3 days.

Stop losses are used, but if a loss is incurred then because of the nature of the system losses will not be excessive.

Healthy monthly returns should be achievable over a prolonged period of time.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20120.40.914.82.43.823.7
2013-19.11.2-5.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-22.5
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/1/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age172 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades20
# Profitable14
% Profitable70.0%
Avg trade duration7.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.5%
drawdown periodDec 31, 2012 - Feb 26, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.3%
Avg win$1,019
Avg loss$2,288

Ratios

W:L ratio1.04
Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Sortino Ratio-0.42
Calmar Ratio0.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life453.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-462.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity38.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,288
Avg Win$1,019
# Winners14
Sum Trade PL (losers)$13,725
Sum Trade PL (winners)$14,260
Num Months Winners6
# Losers6
% Winners70.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table170

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)10589.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)176.50
Avg Trade Length7.40
Last Trade Ago4924

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-4.72

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.14
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1884.27
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.54
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.52
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.25
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.70
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.35
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.01
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.05
df34
t-0.09
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio1.09
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms31
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error33
t(b)-0.75
p(b)0.77
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean-0.02
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.13
df34
t-0.23
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.02
Sortino ratio-0.21
Upside Potential Ratio0.96
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms31
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error33
t(b)-0.72
p(b)0.76
t(a)0.16
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.01
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df783
t-0.21
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.01
Sortino ratio-0.17
Upside Potential Ratio3.49
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms723
N of observations784
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error782
t(b)0.22
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.23
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.18
df783
t-0.31
p0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.39
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms723
N of observations784
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error782
t(b)0.21
p(b)0.42
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.81
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.17
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6808306995691520
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.62122842296915e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations784
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low69
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high63
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.18
Quartile 10.18
Median0.18
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-562848256
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)57
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.08
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.47
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 6 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YM H3short3Mar 7, 2013Mar 16, 2013($3,564)
YM H3long2Feb 12, 2013Mar 5, 2013$2,494
YM H3short2Dec 27, 2012Jan 24, 2013($7,386)
YM H3short2Dec 23, 2012Dec 25, 2012$504
YM Z2long2Dec 2, 2012Dec 21, 2012$1,214
YM Z2short3Nov 26, 2012Dec 2, 2012($1,419)
YM Z2long2Nov 12, 2012Nov 19, 2012($276)
YM Z2long2Nov 8, 2012Nov 9, 2012$514
YM Z2short2Nov 7, 2012Nov 8, 2012$1,044
YM Z2long2Oct 24, 2012Nov 1, 2012$1,314
YM Z2short2Oct 21, 2012Oct 24, 2012$2,374
YM Z2long3Oct 14, 2012Oct 15, 2012$971
YM Z2short1Oct 9, 2012Oct 10, 2012$767
YM Z2long2Oct 2, 2012Oct 4, 2012$884
YM U2short1Sep 17, 2012Sep 20, 2012($318)
YM U2long1Sep 13, 2012Sep 14, 2012$312
YM U2short1Sep 12, 2012Sep 13, 2012($858)
YM U2long1Aug 14, 2012Sep 12, 2012$897
YM U2long1Aug 6, 2012Aug 9, 2012$327
YM U2short1Aug 1, 2012Aug 2, 2012$452

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.