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bH YM

Futures · Started Oct 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.9%
Max Drawdown
81.9%
Trades
142
Win Trades
48.6%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
12.6%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20122.85.5-0.97.6
201320.7-0.14.21.22.23.44.8-12.06.810.05.84.560.9
2014-6.112.62.42.00.6-1.2-4.08.3-2.5-4.66.3-6.25.8
2015-6.217.9-17.6-13.06.6-10.9-5.2-60.529.7-1.0-0.20.0-63.9
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/21/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age169 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades142
# Profitable69
% Profitable48.6%
Avg trade duration5.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown82.0%
drawdown periodMarch 09, 2015 - Aug 24, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.9%
Avg win$1,036
Avg loss$966

Ratios

W:L ratio1.01
Sharpe Ratio0.02
Sortino Ratio0.02
Calmar Ratio0.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life429.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-468.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity213.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$966
Avg Win$1,036
# Winners69
Sum Trade PL (losers)$70,485
Sum Trade PL (winners)$71,460
Num Months Winners21
# Losers73
% Winners48.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table168

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8156.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)135.95
Avg Trade Length5.70
Last Trade Ago4013

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.31
Treynor Index0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-31.15
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.56
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.70
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats31.36
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.02
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df50
t0.19
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.04
Sortino ratio0.12
Upside Potential Ratio1.46
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms30
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error49
t(b)1.28
p(b)0.10
t(a)-0.41
p(a)0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.02
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.05
df50
t-0.11
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio-0.06
Upside Potential Ratio1.21
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms30
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error49
t(b)1.35
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.71
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.05
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df1131
t0.31
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio0.20
Upside Potential Ratio3.74
Upside part of mean1.00
Downside part of mean-0.95
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms375
N negative terms757
N of observations1132
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.02
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error1130
t(b)6.10
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.21
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.02
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df1131
t-0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio-0.05
Upside Potential Ratio3.18
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.99
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms375
N negative terms757
N of observations1132
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.02
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error1130
t(b)6.12
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6815508045234176
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.67974981390286e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations51
Minimum0.66
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations1132
Minimum0.67
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low179
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high161
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.34
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations35
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.55
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.47
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-390847136
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)168
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.08
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.26
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 194 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YM U5long2Jul 10, 2015Sep 18, 2015($12,481)
YM U5long1Jul 1, 2015Jul 7, 2015($1,253)
YM U5long1Jun 26, 2015Jun 30, 2015($2,088)
YM U5long1Jun 25, 2015Jun 25, 2015($978)
YM U5long1Jun 17, 2015Jun 24, 2015$442
YM U5short1Jun 16, 2015Jun 16, 2015($883)
YM M5long1Jun 10, 2015Jun 10, 2015$267
YM M5long1Jun 3, 2015Jun 4, 2015($518)
YM M5short1May 29, 2015Jun 2, 2015$172
YM M5long1May 28, 2015May 29, 2015($368)
YM M5short1May 26, 2015May 27, 2015($278)
YM M5long1May 13, 2015May 26, 2015$172
YM M5long3Apr 20, 2015May 12, 2015$781
YM M5short1Apr 17, 2015Apr 20, 2015($1,498)
YM M5long2Apr 1, 2015Apr 17, 2015$304
YM M5short1Mar 31, 2015Apr 1, 2015($1,063)
YM M5long1Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015($648)
YM M5short2Mar 26, 2015Mar 30, 2015($1,856)
YM M5long2Mar 16, 2015Mar 25, 2015($1,761)
YM M5long1Mar 12, 2015Mar 13, 2015($778)
YM M5short1Mar 11, 2015Mar 12, 2015($828)
YM H5short1Mar 11, 2015Mar 11, 2015($3)
YM H5short1Mar 10, 2015Mar 10, 2015($13)
YM H5long1Mar 9, 2015Mar 10, 2015($1,228)
YM H5short1Mar 4, 2015Mar 9, 2015$627
YM H5long5Feb 2, 2015Mar 4, 2015$7,015
YM H5short1Jan 30, 2015Feb 2, 2015($876)
YM H5long1Jan 29, 2015Jan 30, 2015($1,111)
YM H5short1Jan 28, 2015Jan 29, 2015($676)
YM H5short1Jan 27, 2015Jan 28, 2015($439)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.