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HyperSwing Forex 3

Forex · Started Mar 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.1%
Max Drawdown
37.4%
Trades
129
Win Trades
50.4%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
46.0%

About this strategy

This is a trend strategy based on a proprietary algorithm that triggers either buying or shorting on the currency market (FOREX). The support consists of three FOREX pairs such as EUR-CAD, GBP-JPY, USD-NOK or others.

A trade can last from several hours to several weeks depending on the volatility of the market (SWING TRADING).

- Trend detection and validation.

- Triggering orders, either purchase (LONG) or selling (SHORT).

- Definition of three « TARGETS » objectives and a maximum potential loss "STOP LOSS"

- If the "TARGETS" are reached, the position goes off market with profit.

- If the "STOP LOSS" is reached, the position goes off market with loss and the next trade is initiated with a quantity multiplier of maximum 2.

- If the system requires it, a pair may be substituted for another pair that is not part of the initial selection.

There is a light version of this strategy. It is called HyperSwing Forex 1 and is available on Collective2.

More info on our website gencap.eu

If you have any specific questions, please contact us directly.

You can also follow us on :

Facebook : www.facebook.com/GenCap

Twitter : @GenCapTrading

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20133.97.79.92.811.06.40.5-7.22.6-10.428.0
2014-16.69.74.75.0-1.7-9.31.9-0.9-0.1-0.0-1.40.0-10.8
2015-0.5-0.00.6-0.70.30.20.30.20.3-0.10.2-0.10.8
2016-0.00.1-0.2-0.40.30.30.0-0.3-0.30.20.40.20.1
2017-0.40.10.10.0-0.10.0-0.7-0.20.30.20.10.1-0.4
2018-0.80.1-0.00.10.4-0.10.10.2-0.30.40.10.20.5
2019-0.20.10.0-0.00.1-0.30.10.6-0.00.1-0.0-0.40.2
20200.20.41.0-0.0-0.4-0.2-0.7-0.10.70.0-0.8-0.2-0.2
2021-0.10.2-0.1-0.40.20.10.40.0-0.3-0.40.8-0.00.5
2022-0.1-0.20.00.10.60.5-0.1-0.20.9-0.2-0.5-0.10.8
20230.20.30.10.10.5-0.2-0.60.00.40.4-0.2-0.50.4
20240.30.00.20.1-0.40.00.3-0.3-0.00.30.10.20.8
2025-0.0-0.1-0.60.0-0.30.00.0-0.1-0.10.20.00.0-0.9
2026-0.5-0.00.1-0.4-0.10.6-0.30.8-1.1-0.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/14/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age164 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades129
# Profitable65
% Profitable50.4%
Avg trade duration6.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown37.4%
drawdown periodSept 19, 2013 - July 21, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)1.1%
Avg win$1,048
Avg loss$847

Ratios

W:L ratio1.26
Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Sortino Ratio-0.06
Calmar Ratio0.36

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life386.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-377.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity39.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated84.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$847
Avg Win$1,048
# Winners65
Sum Trade PL (losers)$54,193
Sum Trade PL (winners)$68,099
Num Months Winners91
# Losers64
% Winners50.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table163

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)9939.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)165.66
Avg Trade Length6.90
Last Trade Ago4308

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.37
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.54
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats45.68
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.33
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.63
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.35
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.45
df39
t0.84
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio1.87
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms19
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error38
t(b)-0.15
p(b)0.56
t(a)0.80
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.07
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df39
t0.63
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.42
Sortino ratio0.50
Upside Potential Ratio1.63
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms19
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error38
t(b)-0.09
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.60
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.09
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df894
t0.91
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.55
Sortino ratio0.82
Upside Potential Ratio6.74
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms452
N negative terms443
N of observations895
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error893
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.70
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.07
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df894
t0.76
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.47
Sortino ratio0.67
Upside Potential Ratio6.57
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms452
N negative terms443
N of observations895
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error893
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.70
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df130
t-0.31
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.33
Sortino ratio-0.68
Upside Potential Ratio8.39
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.22
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance-0.01
r-0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-6.52
p(b)0.80
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean-0.01
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.46
df130
t-0.32
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.32
Sortino ratio-0.70
Upside Potential Ratio8.37
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance-0.01
r-0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-6.60
p(b)0.81
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.80
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations895
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low104
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high109
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.22
Median0.22
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.37
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-415141408
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)305
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.94
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.87
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.16

Trading record

Placed 6 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/USD short500Nov 19, 2014Nov 19, 2014($425)
USD/NOK long200Jul 15, 2014Jul 23, 2014($131)
EUR/CAD short140Jul 16, 2014Jul 23, 2014$1,136
AUD/USD long800Jul 18, 2014Jul 23, 2014$3,058
AUD/USD short200Jul 3, 2014Jul 18, 2014($424)
USD/NOK short100Jul 7, 2014Jul 15, 2014($425)
EUR/CAD short70Jul 2, 2014Jul 14, 2014($625)
USD/NOK long100Jun 20, 2014Jul 7, 2014$99
AUD/USD long200Jul 1, 2014Jul 3, 2014($1,690)
EUR/CAD long140Jun 19, 2014Jun 19, 2014($244)
EUR/CAD short140Jun 10, 2014Jun 18, 2014$186
USD/NOK short200Jun 6, 2014Jun 18, 2014($1,401)
AUD/USD long30Jun 11, 2014Jun 16, 2014($78)
EUR/CAD long70Jun 4, 2014Jun 10, 2014($674)
USD/NOK long200May 30, 2014Jun 6, 2014($580)
EUR/CAD short70May 15, 2014May 30, 2014$247
USD/NOK short100May 15, 2014May 23, 2014($417)
AUD/USD short100May 15, 2014May 20, 2014$621
AUD/USD long100May 6, 2014May 15, 2014$392
USD/NOK short100May 7, 2014May 15, 2014($201)
USD/NOK short100Apr 30, 2014May 2, 2014$43
USD/NOK long100Apr 17, 2014Apr 30, 2014$26
EUR/CAD long140Apr 10, 2014Apr 29, 2014$1,101
USD/NOK short100Mar 27, 2014Apr 16, 2014$582
AUD/USD long100Apr 8, 2014Apr 15, 2014$668
EUR/CAD short70Apr 4, 2014Apr 10, 2014($547)
EUR/JPY short500Mar 31, 2014Mar 31, 2014($5)
AUD/USD long100Mar 21, 2014Mar 31, 2014$1,108
EUR/CAD short140Mar 21, 2014Mar 27, 2014$1,784
EUR/JPY long500Mar 27, 2014Mar 27, 2014($5)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.