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KINGKONG

Futures · Started Jan 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.1%
Max Drawdown
9.9%
Trades
31
Win Trades
77.4%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
1.8%

About this strategy

System is only trading in ES mini futures and uses a self developed algorithm. Perfect for those who hate large drawdowns. Positions can be held overnight. Max 3 positions open, so make sure you have enough funds on your account. Each trade is entered with a stop loss. System aims for 1% profit per week with a very low DD. Let the numbers do the talking.
Good luck

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20131.04.72.4-2.3-6.1-0.4-0.4-0.40.00.00.00.0-1.8
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/30/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age166 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades31
# Profitable24
% Profitable77.4%
Avg trade duration1.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown9.9%
drawdown periodApril 09, 2013 - Aug 07, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.1%
Avg win$310
Avg loss$935

Ratios

W:L ratio1.14
Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Sortino Ratio-1.67
Calmar Ratio0.06

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life406.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-415.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity11.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$935
Avg Win$310
# Winners24
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,544
Sum Trade PL (winners)$7,443
Num Months Winners3
# Losers7
% Winners77.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table165

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2222.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)37.05
Avg Trade Length1.50
Last Trade Ago4854

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index4.82

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades12.50
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.40
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats42.34
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats25.87
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.02
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.41
df33
t-0.71
p0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio-0.60
Upside Potential Ratio0.80
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms32
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error32
t(b)-0.07
p(b)0.53
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)8.91
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df33
t-0.75
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-0.62
Upside Potential Ratio0.76
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms32
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error32
t(b)-0.05
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.61
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)11.75
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.02
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df759
t-1.34
p0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.37
Sortino ratio-1.08
Upside Potential Ratio2.46
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms724
N of observations760
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error758
t(b)-0.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)-1.31
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)45.25
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.80
df759
t-1.36
p0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.35
Sortino ratio-1.09
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms724
N of observations760
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error758
t(b)-0.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)-1.34
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)44.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.98
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.86
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6823994900611072
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.83155414550154e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations34
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations760
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high37
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.07
Median0.07
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-394345568
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)120
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.14
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.15
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 45 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M3short1May 23, 2013May 28, 2013($896)
ES M3short1May 17, 2013May 21, 2013($558)
ES M3short3May 7, 2013May 14, 2013($1,599)
ES M3short1May 7, 2013May 7, 2013$17
ES M3short1May 3, 2013May 6, 2013$17
ES M3short1Apr 24, 2013Apr 30, 2013($1,008)
ES M3short1Apr 23, 2013Apr 24, 2013($288)
ES M3short1Apr 23, 2013Apr 23, 2013$622
ES M3short1Apr 23, 2013Apr 23, 2013$20
ES M3long1Apr 18, 2013Apr 19, 2013$430
ES M3long1Apr 17, 2013Apr 18, 2013$117
ES M3long1Apr 16, 2013Apr 16, 2013$492
ES M3long1Apr 16, 2013Apr 16, 2013$405
ES M3long1Apr 15, 2013Apr 16, 2013$142
ES M3long1Apr 15, 2013Apr 15, 2013($4)
ES M3short3Apr 9, 2013Apr 11, 2013($2,212)
ES M3long1Apr 5, 2013Apr 5, 2013$155
ES M3long1Apr 3, 2013Apr 4, 2013$155
ES M3long1Mar 28, 2013Mar 28, 2013$230
ES M3long1Mar 27, 2013Mar 27, 2013$42
ES M3long1Mar 19, 2013Mar 20, 2013$817
ES M3long1Mar 18, 2013Mar 18, 2013$417
ES H3short2Mar 5, 2013Mar 12, 2013($79)
ES H3short1Mar 1, 2013Mar 1, 2013$55
ES H3long1Feb 26, 2013Feb 27, 2013$442
ES H3long1Feb 21, 2013Feb 22, 2013$430
ES H3short1Feb 19, 2013Feb 20, 2013$580
ES H3short1Feb 13, 2013Feb 14, 2013$305
ES H3short1Feb 5, 2013Feb 6, 2013$405
ES H3short1Feb 1, 2013Feb 4, 2013$430

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.