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Shark Futures

Futures · Started Apr 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.0%
Max Drawdown
18.8%
Trades
138
Win Trades
47.1%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
1.9%

About this strategy

This strategy is no longer supported

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20139.048.0-1.5-3.3-6.33.70.00.00.049.3
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/1/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age164 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades138
# Profitable65
% Profitable47.1%
Avg trade duration12.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown18.8%
drawdown periodJune 04, 2013 - Aug 17, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)3.0%
Avg win$574
Avg loss$290

Ratios

W:L ratio1.76
Sharpe Ratio0.16
Sortino Ratio0.29
Calmar Ratio0.96

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life387.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-344.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity11.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$290
Avg Win$574
# Winners65
Sum Trade PL (losers)$21,191
Sum Trade PL (winners)$37,280
Num Months Winners3
# Losers73
% Winners47.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table162

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)717.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)11.95
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago4736

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.42

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.39
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.71
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats31.49
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats22.50
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.26

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df41
t0.96
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio3.73
Upside Potential Ratio5.07
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms38
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error40
t(b)-0.12
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.92
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.11
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df41
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio2.87
Upside Potential Ratio4.18
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms38
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error40
t(b)-0.06
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.12
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df922
t1.86
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio1.91
Upside Potential Ratio4.67
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms855
N of observations923
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error921
t(b)0.56
p(b)0.29
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)16.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.11
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df922
t1.78
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio1.76
Upside Potential Ratio4.49
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms855
N of observations923
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error921
t(b)0.59
p(b)0.28
t(a)1.72
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)14.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6799063689199616
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.93884854207584e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations42
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.50
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-215.58
VaR(95%) (moments method)-22.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations923
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low47
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high68
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.38
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-423994944
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)74
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.27
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.31
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 167 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QM V3long2Aug 29, 2013Sep 19, 2013($16)
NQ U3long2Aug 27, 2013Sep 4, 2013$1,009
ES U3long2Aug 27, 2013Aug 29, 2013$534
NQ U3long4Aug 23, 2013Aug 26, 2013$1,178
ES U3long4Aug 23, 2013Aug 23, 2013($382)
NQ U3long3Aug 16, 2013Aug 19, 2013$1,236
NQ U3long2Aug 14, 2013Aug 15, 2013($2,196)
ES U3long3Aug 14, 2013Aug 15, 2013($2,412)
ES U3long2Aug 13, 2013Aug 13, 2013($291)
ES U3long2Aug 13, 2013Aug 13, 2013($154)
ES U3short2Aug 12, 2013Aug 12, 2013($104)
ES U3long2Aug 12, 2013Aug 12, 2013($341)
ES U3long2Aug 9, 2013Aug 9, 2013($316)
QRB U3long1Aug 8, 2013Aug 9, 2013$2,411
ES U3long3Aug 8, 2013Aug 8, 2013($512)
QRB U3long1Aug 7, 2013Aug 8, 2013($1,255)
ES U3long2Aug 7, 2013Aug 7, 2013$697
NQ U3long2Aug 7, 2013Aug 7, 2013$664
ES U3long3Aug 7, 2013Aug 7, 2013($494)
QM U3long1Jul 24, 2013Jul 30, 2013($1,071)
S X3long1Jul 23, 2013Jul 23, 2013($233)
QRB U3long1Jul 23, 2013Jul 23, 2013($377)
ES U3long2Jul 18, 2013Jul 18, 2013($438)
QM U3long1Jul 17, 2013Jul 17, 2013$517
YG Q3long1Jul 17, 2013Jul 17, 2013($467)
ES U3long2Jul 15, 2013Jul 15, 2013$180
QM Q3long2Jul 11, 2013Jul 11, 2013($441)
ES U3long2Jul 10, 2013Jul 10, 2013($331)
ME U3long1Jul 8, 2013Jul 9, 2013($193)
ES U3long2Jul 5, 2013Jul 5, 2013$693

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.