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Pump and Dump

Stocks · Started Apr 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.6%
Max Drawdown
46.8%
Trades
169
Win Trades
50.9%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
2.5%

About this strategy

I am a day trader specialising in trading Penny Stocks. Penny stocks are extremely volatile and they provide me and my subscribers an excellent opportunity for high returns.

Recognising that volatility can be a double edged sword, I practice the simple rule of cutting losses while letting profits run. Stops for every positions will be tight with potential for profit set to be as large as possible.

Penny stocks that I identify usually move between 5%-50% within a day. Position sizes are usually $10,000-$20,000, depending on the level of risk. Positions that I take can be in the long or short direction. I usually trade 1 position at a time and that position will usually be closed within the day.

I recommend trading my system with a brokerage account with at least $25,000 due to the Pattern Day Trading rule.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2013-4.8-2.4-2.529.211.2-24.82.2-21.9-5.4-26.0
20148.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.9
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/4/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age163 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades169
# Profitable86
% Profitable50.9%
Avg trade duration3.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.8%
drawdown periodAug 27, 2013 - Dec 20, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.6%
Avg win$242
Avg loss$193

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Sortino Ratio-0.43
Calmar Ratio0.73

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life387.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-414.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity72.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$193
Avg Win$242
# Winners86
Sum Trade PL (losers)$16,037
Sum Trade PL (winners)$20,825
Num Months Winners3
# Losers83
% Winners50.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table162

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)200.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.35
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago4627

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.69

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades17.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats7.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.83
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.35
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.07
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df34
t0.94
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.69
Sortino ratio1.93
Upside Potential Ratio3.08
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms30
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error33
t(b)-0.93
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.11
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df34
t0.87
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio1.51
Upside Potential Ratio2.65
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms30
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error33
t(b)-0.93
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.11
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df767
t1.59
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio1.65
Upside Potential Ratio5.40
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms703
N of observations768
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error766
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.62
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-21.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.11
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df767
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio1.52
Upside Potential Ratio5.26
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms703
N of observations768
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error766
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.65
t(a)1.52
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-21.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.16
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6815918751481856
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.38605222037688e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5468.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations768
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low54
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high65
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.12
Median0.12
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-440040640
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)115
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.58
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 40 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KNDI short750Jan 6, 2014Jan 6, 2014$408
NQ short1000Jan 2, 2014Jan 2, 2014$276
LITB short1000Dec 20, 2013Dec 23, 2013$245
YRCW short500Dec 19, 2013Dec 19, 2013($5)
ASTC long5000Dec 17, 2013Dec 17, 2013($305)
CRDS long150Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($303)
ICLD short1000Dec 9, 2013Dec 10, 2013($605)
ICLD short1000Dec 4, 2013Dec 4, 2013$255
BOSC short1000Dec 3, 2013Dec 4, 2013$965
GALE long2000Nov 27, 2013Nov 27, 2013($245)
MBIS short1000Nov 26, 2013Nov 26, 2013$325
MBIS short2000Nov 26, 2013Nov 26, 2013($510)
CAMT short2000Nov 26, 2013Nov 26, 2013$295
PVG short1000Nov 25, 2013Nov 25, 2013($165)
PVG short2000Nov 25, 2013Nov 25, 2013$455
ZHNE short1000Nov 22, 2013Nov 22, 2013$105
SGOC long500Nov 21, 2013Nov 21, 2013($110)
SGOC long250Nov 21, 2013Nov 21, 2013($455)
SGOC short250Nov 20, 2013Nov 20, 2013$267
ICLD short500Nov 19, 2013Nov 19, 2013$90
FONR short500Nov 19, 2013Nov 19, 2013($356)
ICLD short500Nov 19, 2013Nov 19, 2013$670
ICLD short500Nov 18, 2013Nov 18, 2013$185
USU long1000Nov 15, 2013Nov 15, 2013($265)
USU short1000Nov 15, 2013Nov 15, 2013($305)
USU short2000Nov 12, 2013Nov 12, 2013$246
LIOX short2000Nov 11, 2013Nov 11, 2013($605)
LIOX long2000Nov 8, 2013Nov 8, 2013($185)
NTE long1000Nov 6, 2013Nov 6, 2013($45)
LIOX short2000Nov 5, 2013Nov 5, 2013($185)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.