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Prime Euro

Forex · Started Apr 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.9%
Max Drawdown
31.5%
Trades
135
Win Trades
25.9%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
3.1%

About this strategy

This is a manually traded system which is designed to limit risk to its maximum capability. We base our trading on strong technical analysis and current global data. The goal of this strategy is to enter winning positions and take as much profit as the market allows. We cut losses early and exit the market when we are wrong. Stops are always used to protect your investment.

What to expect: Since our ideal win rate is around 30%, expect more losses than winners, but average wins much larger than losses. This allows the system to stay profitable over the long run.

Please note: while we attempt to manage this strategy to the best of our ability, in the Forex market, nothing can be guaranteed.

For scaling the account based on the model:

10,000 account use max 10 mini lots (66%)

15,000 account use max 15 mini lots (100%)

20,000 account use max 20 mini lots (133%)

I increase position size for every 5k in capital.

Our profit target is 10% per month while maintaining a drawdown of less than 4%.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20130.08.88.317.99.0-10.17.6-14.6-2.022.8
2014-2.00.0-2.1-4.20.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-8.1
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/30/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age163 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades135
# Profitable35
% Profitable25.9%
Avg trade duration9.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.5%
drawdown periodSept 18, 2013 - Sept 28, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)0.9%
Avg win$588
Avg loss$136

Ratios

W:L ratio1.51
Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Sortino Ratio-0.10
Calmar Ratio1.18

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life376.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-370.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity46.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated32.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$136
Avg Win$588
# Winners35
Sum Trade PL (losers)$13,645
Sum Trade PL (winners)$20,578
Num Months Winners6
# Losers100
% Winners25.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table162

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)539.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.99
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago4669

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.31
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.09
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats3.74
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.10
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.01
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.35

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.16
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df33
t1.30
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio2.00
Upside Potential Ratio3.12
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms29
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error32
t(b)-0.72
p(b)0.76
t(a)1.47
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.14
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df33
t1.19
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio2.77
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms29
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error32
t(b)-0.70
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.37
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.15
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df746
t1.44
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio1.96
Upside Potential Ratio5.91
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms700
N of observations747
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error745
t(b)-0.39
p(b)0.65
t(a)1.47
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-20.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.14
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df746
t1.33
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio5.67
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms700
N of observations747
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error745
t(b)-0.37
p(b)0.65
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-19.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6812279840440320
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.83717566440129e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations34
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1840.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations747
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low63
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high49
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.51
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-415708768
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)375
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.80
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.82
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.78
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.37
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 558 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD short270Nov 25, 2013Nov 26, 2013($491)
EUR/USD short270Nov 14, 2013Nov 15, 2013($231)
EUR/USD short180Nov 14, 2013Nov 14, 2013($302)
EUR/USD long290Nov 12, 2013Nov 12, 2013($428)
EUR/USD long180Nov 6, 2013Nov 7, 2013($342)
EUR/USD long180Nov 6, 2013Nov 6, 2013$44
EUR/USD long180Oct 30, 2013Oct 30, 2013($361)
EUR/USD short180Oct 10, 2013Oct 10, 2013($326)
EUR/USD short90Oct 8, 2013Oct 8, 2013($94)
EUR/USD short90Oct 3, 2013Oct 4, 2013$329
EUR/USD long240Sep 30, 2013Oct 3, 2013$2,260
EUR/USD long180Sep 30, 2013Sep 30, 2013($430)
EUR/USD long180Sep 27, 2013Sep 27, 2013($429)
EUR/USD long90Sep 26, 2013Sep 26, 2013($117)
EUR/USD long150Sep 26, 2013Sep 26, 2013($151)
EUR/USD long210Sep 26, 2013Sep 26, 2013($383)
EUR/USD long150Sep 24, 2013Sep 24, 2013($134)
EUR/USD long150Sep 23, 2013Sep 24, 2013($218)
EUR/USD long150Sep 23, 2013Sep 23, 2013($268)
EUR/USD long150Sep 23, 2013Sep 23, 2013($313)
EUR/USD long180Sep 22, 2013Sep 23, 2013($282)
EUR/USD long90Sep 20, 2013Sep 20, 2013($153)
EUR/USD long150Sep 18, 2013Sep 18, 2013$858
EUR/USD short120Sep 13, 2013Sep 13, 2013$11
EUR/USD short120Sep 13, 2013Sep 13, 2013$10
EUR/USD short90Sep 12, 2013Sep 13, 2013($139)
EUR/USD short120Sep 12, 2013Sep 12, 2013($158)
EUR/USD short90Sep 12, 2013Sep 12, 2013($125)
EUR/USD long150Sep 6, 2013Sep 9, 2013$1,697
EUR/USD long60Sep 6, 2013Sep 6, 2013($91)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.