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The Chartist

Futures · Started Jun 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
256
Win Trades
66.0%
Profit Factor
0.20
Win Months
5.3%

About this strategy

Charting is based on my 20+ years of trading futures and commodities, it uses strictly technical analysis to generate buy and sell signals. In the high-risk high reward world of futures trading I would considered the system to be on the more conservative side. Generally trading no more than one or two contract per position and generally not risking more than 4% of the total portfolio value. This should also make scaling for subscribers easy to do. I recommend starting out with one contract per position and adding subsaquint contracts over time. NO trades are placed without stop losses. Charting trades index futures ie...mini s&p, dow, nasdaq and from time to time gold & silver ,crude etc...

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20139.15.9-2.115.512.110.49.477.0
2014-4.96.2-0.7-11.3-91.1-1793.2-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-233.4
2015-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2016-0.0-0.0-0.0-512.5-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/27/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,943
Age161 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades256
# Profitable169
% Profitable66.0%
Avg trade duration18.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJune 01, 2014 - June 20, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$461
Avg loss$3,629

Ratios

W:L ratio0.25
Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Sortino Ratio-0.32
Calmar Ratio-0.98

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life370.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-1920.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,629
Avg Win$461
# Winners169
Sum Trade PL (losers)$315,735
Sum Trade PL (winners)$77,924
Num Months Winners7
# Losers87
% Winners66.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table13

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)26710.48
Avg Position Time (hrs)445.17
Avg Trade Length18.50
Last Trade Ago4464

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.20
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.17
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.23
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.22
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.07
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.27
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.88
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.66
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.23

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.48
SD0.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.56
df26
t-0.86
p0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio-0.60
Upside Potential Ratio0.44
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.81
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms20
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-0.48
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.85
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.54
Mean Square Error0.74
DF error25
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.87
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.61
Jensen alpha (a)-0.54
Mean-4.33
SD6.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.69
df26
t-1.06
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Sortino ratio-0.70
Upside Potential Ratio0.05
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-4.66
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD6.14
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms20
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-4.33
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion6.13
Covariance0.04
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.55
Mean Square Error39.10
DF error25
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.45
t(a)-1.01
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.70
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.26
Jensen alpha (a)-4.55
VaR(95%)0.96
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
Mean-0.75
SD1.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.75
df604
t-1.13
p0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.54
Sortino ratio-0.81
Upside Potential Ratio1.42
Upside part of mean1.33
Downside part of mean-2.09
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.94
N nonnegative terms111
N negative terms494
N of observations605
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion-0.75
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion1.01
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.77
Mean Square Error1.02
DF error603
t(b)0.22
p(b)0.41
t(a)-1.15
p(a)0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-27.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.77
Mean-4.22
SD5.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df604
t-1.20
p0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Sortino ratio-0.79
Upside Potential Ratio0.24
Upside part of mean1.27
Downside part of mean-5.49
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD5.31
N nonnegative terms111
N negative terms494
N of observations605
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion-4.22
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion5.32
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.19
Mean Square Error28.35
DF error603
t(b)-0.06
p(b)0.52
t(a)-1.19
p(a)0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.74
Treynor index (mean / b)103.78
Jensen alpha (a)-4.19
VaR(95%)0.43
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.50
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.81
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.62
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.62
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.59
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6624522660741120
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.51665534208047e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.74
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.63
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations605
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.38
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low92
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high112
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.51
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.78
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.43
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-397993856
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)19
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.43
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.98
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 193 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TFS M4short4May 22, 2014Jun 20, 2014($31,312)
ES M4short4May 21, 2014Jun 20, 2014($17,732)
NQ M4short4May 21, 2014Jun 20, 2014($15,192)
QHG N4long2May 22, 2014May 22, 2014($216)
TFS M4short4May 21, 2014May 21, 2014$448
KC N4long3May 20, 2014May 20, 2014($1,374)
ES M4long4May 18, 2014May 19, 2014$268
TFS M4long4May 19, 2014May 19, 2014$768
NQ M4long4May 18, 2014May 19, 2014$1,668
QG M4long3May 19, 2014May 19, 2014$426
QM N4long3May 19, 2014May 19, 2014($324)
KC N4long2May 19, 2014May 19, 2014($1,104)
TFS M4long4May 16, 2014May 16, 2014$1,248
ES M4long4May 16, 2014May 16, 2014$1,168
QM M4long3May 16, 2014May 16, 2014($324)
KC N4short3May 16, 2014May 16, 2014$1,214
TFS M4long4May 16, 2014May 16, 2014($1,672)
QG M4short5May 16, 2014May 16, 2014($228)
KC N4short3May 16, 2014May 16, 2014($1,599)
QM M4short2May 15, 2014May 15, 2014$134
ES M4long4May 13, 2014May 15, 2014($3,770)
NQ M4short4May 15, 2014May 15, 2014$928
KC N4long2May 15, 2014May 15, 2014$2,422
QG M4short5May 14, 2014May 15, 2014($103)
TFS M4long4May 14, 2014May 14, 2014($2,532)
NQ M4long4May 13, 2014May 14, 2014($1,952)
YM M4long4May 13, 2014May 14, 2014($1,412)
TFS M4short2May 13, 2014May 13, 2014$364
TFS M4long6May 13, 2014May 13, 2014($4,728)
YM M4long4May 12, 2014May 12, 2014$1,008

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.