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Champion Trader ES

Futures · Started Sep 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.8%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
243
Win Trades
66.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
5.1%

About this strategy

Basics of this strategy: This strategy stands on a multi-pillar foundation. Main pillars of this strategy are:

1) Statistical and quantitative analysis of ES market data

2) Analysis of S&P500 stocks data like market breadth etc.

3) Analysis of options markets data like put-call ratio, skew etc.

4) Seasonal tendencies of US stock market like January effect etc.

Research has clearly established that above tendencies persist over the years in the US stock markets and are reflected especially in the e-mini market. This strategy has been designed to exploit these longstanding tendencies. Exact entry and exit points are determined using techno-statistical analysis.

Position Sizing: Recommended account size is 20k. You can trade this system with just 10k also, but you might have to accept larger drawdowns. Depending on the strength of a signal, either 1 or 2 ES is bought or sold at trade initiation. Later on, strategy can add 2-3 more contracts, especially if position is making money and there is momentum in our favor. Sometimes if position is losing money, but ES is close to a support/resistance level, then also strategy adds more contracts.

The exact scaling decision depends on a number of variables like whether ES is trading near a support or resistance, what is the current multi-day trend direction, how fast ES is losing momentum etc. etc. So, sometimes after we score a win in one direction, if ES is losing momentum and our techno-statistical analysis indicates a possibility of reversal, strategy closes the trade and takes a reverse position.

Trader's Experience: I have been professionally trading since late 2006, so a total experience of 7 years. I have successfully traded the bear market of 2008 and the QE fueled bull markets afterwards.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2013-17.091.23.1-17.135.7
201416.61.914.6-78.1-71.1318.9-39.3-22.7-391.2-108.11596.023.6-16.3
2015-1.4-1.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.7
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/5/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age159 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades243
# Profitable162
% Profitable66.7%
Avg trade duration1.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodOct 31, 2014 - Dec 11, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)0.8%
Avg win$1,020
Avg loss$1,672

Ratios

W:L ratio1.22
Sharpe Ratio0.15
Sortino Ratio0.33
Calmar Ratio0.33

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life358.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-352.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity78.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,672
Avg Win$1,020
# Winners162
Sum Trade PL (losers)$135,410
Sum Trade PL (winners)$165,262
Num Months Winners6
# Losers81
% Winners66.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table13

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1574.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)26.24
Avg Trade Length1.10
Last Trade Ago4286

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-1.80
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.10
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.83
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.20
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades13.28
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats78.12
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats49.90
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.80
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.65
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean11070.20
SD19699.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df37
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.66
Sortino ratio17197.09
Upside Potential Ratio17198.02
Upside part of mean11070.80
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD19699.42
Downside SD0.64
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms26
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion11070.20
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion19699.42
Covariance-118.86
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1557.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)11820.21
Mean Square Error398656608
DF error36
t(b)-0.13
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.94
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-25652.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta22538.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13724.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha37364.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.11
Jensen alpha (a)11820.21
Mean0.26
SD8.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df37
t0.06
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.13
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio0.67
Upside part of mean3.87
Downside part of mean-3.61
Upside SD5.90
Downside SD5.80
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms26
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion8.38
Covariance0.15
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.73
Mean Square Error71.89
DF error36
t(b)0.42
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta13.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.03
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.73
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.30
Mean10998.99
SD16630.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df836
t1.18
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio8336.46
Upside Potential Ratio8339.18
Upside part of mean11002.59
Downside part of mean-3.60
Upside SD16634.62
Downside SD1.32
N nonnegative terms179
N negative terms658
N of observations837
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion10998.99
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion16630.67
Covariance-176.29
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1859.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)11930.13
Mean Square Error276582208
DF error835
t(b)-1.00
p(b)0.84
t(a)1.28
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5525.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1807.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6425.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha30285.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.92
Jensen alpha (a)11930.13
Mean0.26
SD11.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df836
t0.04
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.39
Upside part of mean11.53
Downside part of mean-11.27
Upside SD8.57
Downside SD8.32
N nonnegative terms179
N negative terms658
N of observations837
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion11.95
Covariance-0.07
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.78
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error142.94
DF error835
t(b)-0.58
p(b)0.72
t(a)0.09
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha13.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
VaR(95%)0.70
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.77
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.01
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6815048483733504
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.64037368242838e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations38
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum35056.38
Mean of quarter 10.82
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 43506.75
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.54
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high5009.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.41
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.95
Number of observations837
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum29431.91
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4169.18
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low108
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high179
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high197.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.08
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.48
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.76
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.45
Expected Shortfall (moments method)2.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-8.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.76
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.76
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-571282752
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)41
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.34
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.69
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.43
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 909 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z4long14Sep 25, 2014Dec 19, 2014$36,988
ES Z4short8Sep 25, 2014Sep 25, 2014($1,214)
ES Z4long10Sep 25, 2014Sep 25, 2014($1,905)
ES Z4short8Sep 25, 2014Sep 25, 2014$436
ES Z4long24Sep 19, 2014Sep 25, 2014($20,907)
ES Z4long16Sep 17, 2014Sep 19, 2014$6,547
ES U4long16Aug 27, 2014Sep 17, 2014$4,547
ES U4short70Aug 18, 2014Aug 27, 2014($13,843)
ES U4long10Aug 18, 2014Aug 18, 2014$195
ES U4short32Aug 15, 2014Aug 18, 2014($9,144)
ES U4long14Aug 15, 2014Aug 15, 2014$913
ES U4short12Aug 14, 2014Aug 15, 2014$1,742
ES U4long4Aug 14, 2014Aug 14, 2014$618
ES U4short2Aug 14, 2014Aug 14, 2014$309
ES U4short10Aug 13, 2014Aug 13, 2014($1,118)
ES U4short8Aug 13, 2014Aug 13, 2014$686
ES U4long8Aug 12, 2014Aug 12, 2014$399
ES U4short4Aug 12, 2014Aug 12, 2014$1,743
ES U4short8Aug 11, 2014Aug 12, 2014$836
ES U4short8Aug 11, 2014Aug 11, 2014$161
ES U4short8Aug 11, 2014Aug 11, 2014$486
ES U4short18Aug 7, 2014Aug 7, 2014$5,231
ES U4short6Aug 7, 2014Aug 7, 2014($236)
ES U4short20Aug 6, 2014Aug 7, 2014$1,778
ES U4long2Aug 6, 2014Aug 6, 2014$522
ES U4long4Aug 5, 2014Aug 6, 2014$468
ES U4short12Aug 5, 2014Aug 5, 2014$479
ES U4long4Aug 5, 2014Aug 5, 2014$268
ES U4long4Aug 5, 2014Aug 5, 2014($332)
ES U4short4Aug 5, 2014Aug 5, 2014($682)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.