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Killed Gold System 2

Futures · Started Jan 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
Trades
203
Win Trades
47.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
2.0%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20140.2-4.012.610.0-2.4-15.0-2.00.00.00.00.00.0-3.3
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/24/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age154 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades203
# Profitable96
% Profitable47.3%
Avg trade duration10.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown
drawdown period
Cumul. Return-274.5%
Avg win$495
Avg loss$430

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Sortino Ratio-0.58
Calmar Ratio0.06

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life323.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-283.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-2.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)868

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$430
Avg Win$495
# Winners96
Sum Trade PL (losers)$46,000
Sum Trade PL (winners)$47,490
Num Months Winners3
# Losers107
% Winners47.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table153

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)640.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.68
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago4438

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-3.24

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-28.65
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.80
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats55.17
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.43
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.47
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-1.66
SD1.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.94
df5
t-0.79
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.89
Sortino ratio-1.17
Upside Potential Ratio0.29
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-2.08
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD1.42
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-1.66
SD of predictor0.04
SD of criterion1.48
Covariance-0.01
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-8.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error2.62
DF error4
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.65
t(a)-0.03
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-62.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta46.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha11.90
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
Mean-21.65
SD15.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.17
df5
t-0.98
p0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio-1.39
Upside Potential Ratio0.03
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-22.05
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD15.54
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-21.65
SD of predictor0.04
SD of criterion15.58
Covariance-0.05
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-38.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-14.52
Mean Square Error301.03
DF error4
t(b)-0.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)-0.31
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-632.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta554.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-143.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha114.57
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)-14.52
VaR(95%)1.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.66
Mean-1.90
SD1.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.33
df173
t-0.95
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio-1.34
Upside Potential Ratio0.93
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-3.21
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD1.41
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms87
N of observations174
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-1.90
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion1.42
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error2.03
DF error172
t(b)0.21
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.96
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.19
Jensen alpha (a)-1.94
Mean-21.40
SD15.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.40
df173
t-1.00
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio-1.40
Upside Potential Ratio0.09
Upside part of mean1.30
Downside part of mean-22.70
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD15.26
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms87
N of observations174
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-21.40
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion15.26
Covariance0.01
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-21.61
Mean Square Error234.27
DF error172
t(b)0.11
p(b)0.50
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-21.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta24.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-64.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha21.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.22
Jensen alpha (a)-21.61
VaR(95%)0.76
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.82
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-1.90
SD1.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.33
df171
t-0.94
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.45
Sortino ratio-1.34
Upside Potential Ratio0.93
Upside part of mean1.32
Downside part of mean-3.23
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD1.42
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms85
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-1.90
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion1.43
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.94
Mean Square Error2.05
DF error170
t(b)0.21
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.96
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.19
Jensen alpha (a)-1.94
Mean-21.63
SD15.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.40
df171
t-1.00
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio-1.41
Upside Potential Ratio0.09
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-22.94
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD15.35
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms85
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-21.63
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion15.35
Covariance0.01
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-21.84
Mean Square Error237.01
DF error170
t(b)0.11
p(b)0.50
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-21.94
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta24.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-65.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha21.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.24
Jensen alpha (a)-21.84
VaR(95%)0.76
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.82
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.48
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations174
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations172
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.58
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)50
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.98
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.22
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.22

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QGC Q4long1Jul 13, 2014Jul 13, 2014($228)
QGC Q4long1Jul 11, 2014Jul 11, 2014$192
QGC Q4short1Jul 11, 2014Jul 11, 2014($148)
QGC Q4long1Jul 10, 2014Jul 10, 2014$652
QGC Q4long1Jul 9, 2014Jul 9, 2014$232
QGC Q4long1Jul 9, 2014Jul 9, 2014($18)
QGC Q4short2Jul 9, 2014Jul 9, 2014($356)
QGC Q4long1Jul 9, 2014Jul 9, 2014($188)
QGC Q4long1Jul 8, 2014Jul 8, 2014$32
QGC Q4long1Jul 7, 2014Jul 7, 2014($118)
QGC Q4long1Jul 7, 2014Jul 7, 2014$572
QGC Q4short1Jul 7, 2014Jul 7, 2014($68)
QGC Q4long1Jul 4, 2014Jul 6, 2014($108)
QGC Q4short2Jul 3, 2014Jul 4, 2014($406)
QGC Q4long1Jul 1, 2014Jul 3, 2014($868)
QGC Q4short1Jul 1, 2014Jul 1, 2014($138)
QGC Q4long1Jun 30, 2014Jun 30, 2014$102
QGC Q4long1Jun 30, 2014Jun 30, 2014$1,002
QGC Q4long1Jun 27, 2014Jun 29, 2014($268)
QGC Q4short1Jun 27, 2014Jun 27, 2014($348)
QGC Q4long1Jun 27, 2014Jun 27, 2014($468)
QGC Q4long1Jun 26, 2014Jun 26, 2014($108)
QGC Q4short1Jun 26, 2014Jun 26, 2014$292
QGC Q4long2Jun 25, 2014Jun 25, 2014($76)
QGC Q4short1Jun 25, 2014Jun 25, 2014($538)
QGC Q4long1Jun 24, 2014Jun 24, 2014($528)
QGC Q4short1Jun 24, 2014Jun 24, 2014($838)
QGC Q4long1Jun 23, 2014Jun 23, 2014$102
QGC Q4short1Jun 20, 2014Jun 20, 2014($318)
QGC Q4long1Jun 19, 2014Jun 19, 2014($988)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.