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Blue Iron

Forex · Started Jan 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.9%
Max Drawdown
22.5%
Trades
121
Win Trades
97.5%
Profit Factor
31.60
Win Months
3.3%

About this strategy

We usually trade GBP/USD with averaging strategy using an algorytm developed by us (expert advisor) in metatrader platform.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-0.414.311.0-3.75.52.69.00.00.00.00.00.043.5
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/27/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age154 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades121
# Profitable118
% Profitable97.5%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.4%
drawdown periodJan 30, 2014 - Feb 05, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)2.9%
Avg win$44
Avg loss$55

Ratios

W:L ratio31.60
Sharpe Ratio0.14
Sortino Ratio0.19
Calmar Ratio1.09

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life325.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-282.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated92.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$55
Avg Win$44
# Winners118
Sum Trade PL (losers)$165
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,214
Num Months Winners5
# Losers3
% Winners97.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table153

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2046.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)34.12
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago4435

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.25

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.67
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.58
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats3.95
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats62.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.56
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.05
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.37

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df30
t1.70
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio19.15
Upside Potential Ratio22.27
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms26
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error29
t(b)-0.70
p(b)0.76
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.13
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df30
t1.69
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.27
Sortino ratio17.97
Upside Potential Ratio21.08
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms26
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error29
t(b)-0.65
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.14
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df688
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.08
Sortino ratio1.26
Upside Potential Ratio3.69
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms86
N negative terms603
N of observations689
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error687
t(b)0.63
p(b)0.27
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)13.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.13
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df688
t1.28
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio3.47
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms86
N negative terms603
N of observations689
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error687
t(b)0.66
p(b)0.26
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)11.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819248424878080
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.35140288648304e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations689
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low43
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high86
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-15.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-420710592
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)6
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.82
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.45
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 55 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD short150Jun 25, 2014Jul 24, 2014$627
GBP/USD short10Jun 24, 2014Jun 25, 2014$29
GBP/USD short70Jun 18, 2014Jun 24, 2014$134
GBP/USD short10Jun 18, 2014Jun 18, 2014$9
GBP/USD short30Jun 17, 2014Jun 18, 2014$67
GBP/USD short10Jun 16, 2014Jun 17, 2014$25
GBP/USD long30Jun 13, 2014Jun 16, 2014$40
GBP/USD long10Jun 12, 2014Jun 13, 2014$29
GBP/USD long10Jun 12, 2014Jun 12, 2014$25
GBP/USD long10Jun 12, 2014Jun 12, 2014$26
GBP/USD long10Jun 12, 2014Jun 12, 2014$4
GBP/USD long30Jun 12, 2014Jun 12, 2014$145
GBP/USD long10Jun 12, 2014Jun 12, 2014$11
GBP/USD long10Jun 12, 2014Jun 12, 2014$15
GBP/USD long10Jun 11, 2014Jun 12, 2014$24
GBP/USD long70Jun 9, 2014Jun 11, 2014$125
GBP/USD long30Jun 5, 2014Jun 6, 2014$20
GBP/USD long70Jun 5, 2014Jun 5, 2014$228
GBP/USD long10Jun 4, 2014Jun 5, 2014$22
GBP/USD long10Jun 4, 2014Jun 4, 2014$25
GBP/USD short30May 29, 2014Jun 4, 2014$17
GBP/USD short30May 28, 2014May 29, 2014$38
GBP/USD short10May 28, 2014May 28, 2014$18
GBP/USD short190Apr 15, 2014May 28, 2014$29
GBP/USD short30Apr 15, 2014Apr 15, 2014$43
GBP/USD long150Apr 9, 2014Apr 15, 2014$144
GBP/USD long10Apr 9, 2014Apr 9, 2014$25
GBP/USD short20Apr 8, 2014Apr 9, 2014($93)
GBP/USD long10Apr 8, 2014Apr 8, 2014($72)
GBP/USD long10Apr 8, 2014Apr 8, 2014$14

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.