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Pangolin IC

Options · Started Feb 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.2%
Max Drawdown
28.0%
Trades
395
Win Trades
48.1%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
3.9%

About this strategy

An Iron Condor is a fixed risk, directionally neutral option strategy that makes money as long as the underlying index or stock does not move more than a specified amount prior to option expiration. As a seller of these contracts, time decay (theta) is on your side, and appropriate positioning of the puts and calls can provide a 90+% likelihood of the trade closing profitably.

Pangolin IC will trade Iron Condors only on the ETFs for the major indices (SPY and IWM). With these two indices, large price dislocations are extremely uncommon, unlike higher volatility stocks where earnings can cause a 5-10% move overnight. No more than two ICs will be put in place for any option expiration date, with a maximum dollars at risk of no more than $5000. The condors are established with a delta for each wing of 0.10 or less. We will also use only weekly options - these options have a much greater time decay and traditional monthly options, which as a seller works to our benefit.

Anyone who has traded options knows that Iron Condors are one of the most reliable strategies for generating steady income growth regardless of market direction. This is not rocket science - it is a simple and straightforward application of statistics to market activity.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-0.611.118.6-0.32.61.07.84.6-26.9-0.8-2.97.5
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/17/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age153 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades395
# Profitable190
% Profitable48.1%
Avg trade duration10.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown28.0%
drawdown periodOct 27, 2014 - Nov 21, 2014
Cumul. Return8.8%
Avg win$422
Avg loss$333

Ratios

W:L ratio1.17
Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Sortino Ratio-0.06
Calmar Ratio0.58

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life312.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-4.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity50.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss48.0%
Chance of 20% account loss20.5%
Chance of 30% account loss3.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)329
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)369

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$333
Avg Win$422
# Winners190
Sum Trade PL (losers)$68,270
Sum Trade PL (winners)$80,155
Num Months Winners6
# Losers205
% Winners48.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table152

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)14363.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)239.39
Avg Trade Length10
Last Trade Ago4279

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades23.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.65
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.49
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.98
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.79
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.58
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df9
t1.19
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.41
Sortino ratio2.29
Upside Potential Ratio3.38
Upside part of mean0.85
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms1
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.58
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance-0.03
r-0.63
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.00
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error8
t(b)-2.31
p(b)0.98
t(a)2.28
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.19
Jensen alpha (a)1.00
Mean0.48
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df9
t0.99
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.18
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio2.77
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms1
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance-0.03
r-0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.88
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error8
t(b)-2.25
p(b)0.97
t(a)2.00
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.88
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.49
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.31
df309
t1.25
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.38
Sortino ratio1.92
Upside Potential Ratio6.45
Upside part of mean1.66
Downside part of mean-1.17
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms169
N negative terms141
N of observations310
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error308
t(b)1.72
p(b)0.04
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.42
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df309
t1.05
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.17
Sortino ratio1.50
Upside Potential Ratio5.77
Upside part of mean1.63
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms169
N negative terms141
N of observations310
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error308
t(b)1.46
p(b)0.07
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.18
Treynor index (mean / b)1.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.04
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df171
t-0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio-0.13
Upside Potential Ratio4.13
Upside part of mean1.32
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms77
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error170
t(b)0.92
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.13
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.12
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df171
t-0.21
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio-0.33
Upside Potential Ratio3.69
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-1.43
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms77
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion-0.12
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error170
t(b)0.67
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.24
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.97
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.77
Quartile 11.02
Median1.06
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations310
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations172
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.23
Quartile 10.23
Median0.23
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.90
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.40
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)25
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.63
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.34
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.78
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.33

Trading record

Placed 8 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPY1426X198 long20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014($634)
IWM1426X112 short20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014$706
GLD1426X106 long20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014($434)
GLD1426X108 short20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014$606
SPY1426X200 short20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014$826
SPY1426L212 short20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014$326
SPY1426L214 long20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014($174)
IWM1426X110 long20Dec 8, 2014Dec 27, 2014($474)
IWM short2000Dec 21, 2014Dec 22, 2014($2,405)
SPY short2000Dec 21, 2014Dec 22, 2014($1,505)
SPY1420L206 short20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014$246
SPY1420L208 long20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014($114)
SPY1420X193 short20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014$846
SPY1420X191 long20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014($654)
IWM1420L118 short20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014$286
IWM1420X108 long20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014($454)
IWM1420L120 long20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014($94)
IWM1420X110 short20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014$786
GLD1420L120 short20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014$426
GLD1420L122 long20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014($194)
GLD1420X112 short20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014$286
GLD1420X110 long20Dec 15, 2014Dec 21, 2014($174)
SPY1412X197 short20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014$486
SPY1412X195 long20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014($394)
SPY1412L211 short20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014$306
GLD1412L124 short20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014$306
GLD1412L126 long20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014($254)
IWM1412L120 short20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014$226
IWM1412L122 long20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014($134)
SPY1412L213 long20Dec 1, 2014Dec 13, 2014($154)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.