I have designed and evaluated many Trading Systems over the past 20 years. As a degreed statistician, I can say that JayTrader2 is one of the few systems which I have seen that is both easy to trade, ie, low maintenance, and yet provides very good real life and backtested results. While I normally do not put too much stock in systems which have only traded live for a few months, hence the reason for not rating
JayTrader2 as "Exceptional", both the theoretrical and practical underpinnings of this system are solid. Most impressive to me is that even the short trades have been profitable during this recent market rally. I will be ramping up my size very soon.
I have joined this system one month ago. Vendor usually send orders between friday and Sunday, and for the moment, I´m very happy, because I have a full time job, so I don´t have much time to watch the market day and night, and this system is a perfect set and forget system, but drawdown is a bit high. For this reason I rate as "very good".
In a nutshell the system looks like it works. I used the demo account with auto trader, and its up $675 in a week.
I would highly recommend having auto-trade enabled, because their can be a quick succession of buys, cancels, stops & sells.
The description of the system keeps changing. It used to say "low risk" "high reward system" and brag about a 38 run with small drwadown. Also the time the sytem trades keeps changing. It was a 24 hr system ,then it wasnt, then it was again. Now that it has had a 20 percent + drawdown in a single day , my advice is dont walk away from this system.....RUN!
My short experience with this system is quite bad since I din't see yet a positive trade. It was a petty to see some postive trades closed when they turned negative. The fact that the develloper change his strategy it's a bad sign for me and may signal the start of the end of the present system. I'm thinking to cancel my subsription during the running month.
Amazing. This system is almost back to the equity it started with. Unfortunately I joined in April or 2009. Too much lost w/ MVP-3. There have been so many changes I don't know what this system is anymore.
I think Jim has an obvious option for keeping all subscribers and potentially attracting others.
The model account is still big enough to be split to two systems, one with intra-day signals for autotraders and one with the current EOD style for other subscribers.
It seems that with the current style in the current market the system can't make money or at least keep the profits.
Since my subscription is nearing it's end I don't plan to renew it unless Jim introduces intra-day signals (or changes the market but is unlikely :-)).
My rating reflects my current impression. In the past ETF Timer was exceptionally good.
I have been a subscriber to the system since April. I have been trading the Nasdaq 100 for a long time and I will say that I have been unable to produce the consistent returns that this system has. Couple of observations: The system seems a little sluggish reacting to trend changes. Sometimes there is a clear change of trend and the system will close the trade and wait for 3-4 days and open the next trade. I think the draw downs can be minimized by trading more frequently and going immediately from long to short or vice versa. Capital allocation is outstanding. 20% usually to open and max at 55% considering this is a leveraged fund. Keep in mind the system is still up 10% for the year and outperforming the market.
I've been a subscriber since May 1st. The latest closed out trade put me slightly in the red now which is not a reason for me to give up yet. I think it's just been the summer doldrums for the ETF Timer and the market as well. Big money "sold in May and went away" and market volume has dried up since. Hopefully the big money and trading volume will come back to the market after Labor Day and the timer will profit again. I'm being patient. But, I'll have to give it a fair rating due to the flat performance I've experienced over the past 4 months.
Although the system almost had five consecutive loosing hands since early June, the entry points seem useful. I replicated his entries, but closed positions when profit was reasonable, including the latest trading that I closed my positions on 08/30. Therefore, among his last five trades, I had three winning hands. The exit indicator the developer is using seems not sensitive enough in the current market.
This was an excellent system and then a change was made. In January, the developer dropped intra day trade releases and now they are all end of day. The problem is that drawdowns have been enhanced and profits diminished. A 4 month drawdown tells me something may be wrong. Maybe not, but I have this feeling it needs to be looked into by the developer. When I look at the 2010 results, I have to ask, why are you charging $97/mo instead of $49/mo. Only time will tell!
Im afraid Jim has completely lost the plot. His indicators work in a strongly trending market, like in 2008 and 2009, but they completely fail in a non-trending market. Instead of adapting to market change, Jim stubbornly executes is trades and incurs loss after loss. He fails to secure profits when they are on the table via stops, and he now has the third trade at his hands in as many months where a substantial profit is turning into a loss. ETF timer looked for a while, but unfortunately, it will go down in C2 history as yet another system that worked for a while and then faltered
This used to be a good system when it executed trades anytime during the day. Since it went to a beginning and end of day system, it has lost many chances to take profits at obvious times - like the bounce off SPX 1040. Losing faith Jim - and money.
Exactly. A drawdown is to be expected in any trading system. But a drawdown that lasts from Memorial Day to Labor Day gets depressing. It will be hard to renew the subscription when it comes due this next time.
The current drawdown is not larger in magnitude than the max DD since inception. However, it is much longer than any previous drawdown period. As such the historical equity curve is not very helpful since the system's performance is doing something it hasn't done before. The strategy may or may not bounce back, my guess is that it will. But at any rate I'm not going to risk any further capital before it recovers most of its drawdown. Epistemological risk management.
no suspense, it's going to be another losing trade this time. As someone correctly points out, the problem is not that the developer not changing his strategy. On the contrary, it is because the developer deviate his winning strategy in 2008 , maybe for the reason of luring more subscriber. Caution, caution, ..as the loosing trade mount, the credit of this system is going away... so will be the subscriber.
Been a subscriber for over a year. Equity curve bouncing off end-of-March support. Suggest you get on board now. When 42 breaks on the Qs only the strong hands will be smiling along with Jim.
★★★★★
This system is diversified (someone commented it is all over the place). Trades have low drawdown. And results are just amazing. Thank you for your work.
Like this system because of overall performance and especially the position sizing. Exact percent of total account for each trade is given. Positions rarely exceed 50 per cent It basically is brain dead trading. The system manager provides a trade or no trade signal every trading day so you know he is monitoring the market.
I have opted in and out of this system, not because of the system but like today someone stole my credit card number, which is being replaced, and I am going away for a week.
Last 2 1/2 months were not good which I think is normal for any system and if you look at the overall performance insignificant.
I am probably one of the most nervous traders so the opting in and out is a function of my personality than the system.
★★★★★
I made and lost some money with this system. However, right now the system is all over the place. Im pretty sure it will be a good system, but Im out for now.
Have to add my kudos to this system. The current drawdown has only been about 12% (so far) which is less than half the max drawdown. It looks worse on the chart because C2 charts have a linear scale rather than logarithmic. I also hope the developer does not take the negative reviews too seriously. They are to be expected during a drawdown. Also I do feel for those joining the system just before the drawdown. I know it is no fun. Maybe the best strategy to counter this is to start small and add to the system as you gain profit.
The true test of any system is adversity. The developer has so far resisted calls of the ill-informed to change or revise the system. THAT is an excellent sign. The current drawdown is not abnormal, as can easily be seen by running simple Monte Carlo analysis. To anyone upset at current minor drawdown I say put your money in the bank. You'll have zero drawdown and a lot less stress. Financial maturity is a skill most do not have, as exemplified by the bashers of this system.
Although my month with eminialerts was not profitable, the previous two months makes me think this system has potential. I may jump back in after a more developed track record
Thomas was quick to answer questions. Stops are entered just after trade opened and for the most part small dd. I was manually trading but several trades I couldn’t get the same entries or my order didn’t get filled at all while their order seemed to get filled at the market which started to get frustrating, however, that may be more of a function of C2’s than eminialerts
★★★★★
So far through its short history this system has proven its worth in terms of position sizing, market timing and its ability to cut losses. The returns, although based on a small sample size, look extremely promising. I have traded a 100k account over the past 10 days with live money and have achieved identical results to those posted. So far, I am extremely pleased and hope for the run to continue. Excellent work Ron.
