The system was doing well for the past few months when the market was up smoothly. But reacting the recent volatile event, it did just the opposite to the common scenes, (keep long during DD, short before rebound and go long after). It likely is based too much on historical data, therefore very behind to response to any fast moving market condition.
Reading the rebuttals it seems the systems is for less sophisticated subscribers like me, don't ask, just follow, because we are not capable. Ohh please! don't insult our intelligence.
I am sick of seeing negative reviews of beginner "traders" that now start ripping into a solid system that just went into a drawdown of ~6% amidst turmoil in the global financial markets. Things you need to know: 1. This is an EOD system, and thus can not guarantee you will not be hurt by gap up or gap downs. That's just how things are, you can't blame the system developers. 2. Drawdowns are a necessary evil for any system and any mechanical trader, if you can not take the heat of being down -10 or 20% then do not trade! I give this system 5 stars because I do not know any better system for the Nasdaq futures out there. I traded this system for around 2 months now and I am very happy with the service provided. All the haters: STFU, stop trading and use a 5% CD.No drawdowns, no risk!
Here is a copy of an email I sent to TMG (Merlin)
Jerry based on your email that you just sent PLEASE CANCEL my subscription. The reason for my cancellation is your refusal to give the actual trade dates that generated the back tested results and the effects of stops on returns. I will not send almost $1,500 per year with this level of nondisclosure.
Good Luck to all!
Without actual trades dates it can not be determined if the back testing results are in fact true. TMG also will not disclose what effects placing stops on trades have on back tested results. Buyer Beware!
Despite TMG’s deviation from its C2 historical norm it is still fair to say that this system is trading within its stated 21 year historical performance envelope. Most system providers fail to conduct, let alone offer, this level of backtest transparency and thus will be theoretically less reliable in the longer run. A knee-jerk week for any EOD system can only be weathered, not designed for. Subscribers who choose to accurately evaluate a system such as this one must therefore consider performance over a reasonable period of time---otherwise, it is they who will be the ultimate losers and not the system.
You wanna make a lot of money: SUbscribe to this system and follow the Exxact Opposite. Joke aside as amazing and the best as it seems, you will lose money in the Long Run. Reason being the obvious: No Money Managament. It is claimed to hit 3% Target much less than its recommended 3% Stop during its 21 year backtesting period. For Newbies outhere: If someone tells you using Stops would reduce your gains in the long run, Run Away. The only reason system getting 2 stars is the honesty of its admins
This system may not be a pure mechanical system.
When the system is not in drawdown, the signal of last hour flips easily as it approches to 0. When the system is in drawdown, the signal does not flip even it is close to 0 in the last hour. Like a human does not want to accept a losing trade.
A system that may yield good real world results, but for myself I'd be happier if they'd stop changing it / tinkering with it. I'll take a simple system proven in the real world anytime, over one that's always newly tweaked and "optimized".
I have traded this system for a good 4 weeks. While the history visible in C2 is yet too short to judge its' long term viability the provided full history of backtested trades in all contracts (see the Excel sheet) deliver some faith in the systems robustness. The system appears to be fully mechanic and there is no "scaling in" into positions. All trades happen EOD which increases the ease of catching all entries. I have spoken to the system developer via email and IM, he was very friendly and responded quickly. Apparently he is trading for over 20 years and appears to be very risk averse which is a big plus in my book. Conclusion so far: Highly recommended!
Open drawdown of negative $30,000! This is the original "hold and hope" system. Closes out small profits and lets big losses ride. No stops! A total disaster since I started trading it.
I started to trade this solid system since 01/31/2007 (~one month ago) with structured products based on NDX. I get a 10X leverage and I trade with little funds. I'm very happy of the return, I made ~15% without taking risks, but now I'm confident with this system! Signals are clear and always go out to be ready at BOD! It only takes 5 minutes of trading and attention per day! But I sometimes choose to open or close my positions during trading hours to take profit of gaps.
This is a very good and stable system! Try it!
This system has very steady performance. But the slippage are high due to low volume and using market order at Monday opening. These might not be significant impact as system vendor believes. The adjusted equity curve (click "Realism Factor, with commis.") does give good references for the real-world trading.
Check the most recent one with total 1600 shares in 13 trades only for all day today. Like many others, I am not very comfortable dealing with so thinly traded stocks.
Pros: Vendor uses stops and take-profits consistently; signals easy to follow; system not sensitive to slippage; suitable for trading in smaller (sub $10K) accounts.
Cons: Three out of four systems offered by this vendor experienced severe (40%) drawdowns, leading to concerns about overall trading style and risk management by the vendor.
I have been trading this system for about 13 months. In that time it has been consistently profitable. There is no problem matching the fills. Risk has been largely kept under control, with only one large drawdown last May. One of the best systems on C@, IMHO.
2/21/07 (update) 30% drop in one day (after bad earnings news) b/c vendor held on to position described below. Back to zero now. 2/12/07 a 14% drop in equity in just 1 day for a stock system is too risky for me. Especially if this is caused by just one position (after averaging down into it heavily) in a portfolio of 15 stocks while the broader market is just doing fine. With one bad call the vendor gave away 2 months of profits on a single day.
I don't understand why the system has such a low realism factor since all trades are market at the open. System has been working out quite nicely for me over the last 2 months. Just hope it keeps up.
go to stockcharts, put up price-NO indicators necessary. Go through the closed trades on the TMG page here. Annotate the chart with vertical lines-- green when TMG says BTO, red when TMG says STO. Beautiful picture indeed. Good going amigos. $$$$$$$$$$$$
I don't believe it is possible for a medium term system to get much better than this. When the system trades, the signals are clear and prompt, I set the trades at the weekend and don't have to check again until the following weekend, but like most people in this business of course i do ! Have been trading the system for four months and with exception of one trade I am getting the same fills as C2 and making a healthy profit. IMO this is the perfect system for the not-so-greedy medium timeframe stock trader. After being burned on so many "great" systems, I finally feel like there is some good in this world !
