Another "hold and hope" losing system. Zero discipline, builds confidence after a string of very short and very small gains, and then gambles it all away on "hold and hope" when it goes against him. Adjusts the system description to match the outcome, as if it were designed to do this all along. Caveat Emptor!
After losing me $5,038 in one trade, this guy got scared and hasn't traded since 10/06/08. While his system looked promising at first, the acid test is how a system handles losing trades. That is what separates the men from the boys. In that respect, this system fails.
Revised review after the crash... Story book performance destroyed by the market turmoil the past couple of months. Stop-loss order was a disaster. Discretionary trades after the stop-loss were just as bad, maybe worse. Nonetheless, I expect this system to resume profitability soon. Just proceed with caution (hedging via married puts, trailing stop losses, limited capital investment amount etc.)
I took a look at this system briefly back in the Spring of this year when it was first being introduced to C2 only a few months old. As its equity curve, track record, and overall stats indicate, I believe EXLENCE continues to be one of the shining stars available here at C2. Due to the large number of underlying in its basket, it however might be somewhat more challenging to implement for smaller account sizes (ie. less than $100k capital).
-- Aspire Trader
System vendor is honest,hard working and communicates well. Sadly, my fear that no mechanical system works forever is backed up here. After recent turmoil, the system has been tweaked and may be worth monitoring for an upturn in fortunes.
I like these guys, they answer with courtesy to questions on the mailing lists, they explain the moves (whenever possible), they have a long record of happy subscribers and the pace of trading is sustainable. I am not an expert by any mean but i dont think one can ask for much more from a system and a system vendor.
I don't know what got into him today - very uncharacteristic. Luckily I was managing my positions and kept the loss to about $7K, about half what it otherwise would have been. Until I get a good explanation of what happened and how it can be avoided in the future I naturally will have to stop using this system.
I can't bear to stay with this system any longer. Unfortunately with your Win% at 63.7% and your risk of loss at 10 points for every 2 he want's to make it's a disaster waiting to happen. I just found that out today. After 2 months of steady going I lost $14K in one day today before i pulled the plug mid trade.
That's the downside to 2:10 win:loss with 62% being correct. Fortunately I probably still made money in the 2 months I followed but I see the risk now and cutting my losses and quiting now. Wish I quit yesterday though. Good luck to anyone else who sticks around with 62% accuracy and 2:10 win/loss ratio. Should have seen it coming with super volatile markets we are in and Vix at 60+.
Is this system still being supported? On an unrelated note, I noticed an eerie situation. The very successful STANDARD stock trading system also stopped trading on 9/11/08.
Would have been 5 stars bf last 2 trades. Actually got out of the big losing trade at a nice profit bc I was at my computer or there should of at least been a tighter stop. These leveraged etfs can't be traded in volatile mkts unless the vendor is sitting at his terminal instead of out somewhere else. In trending markets he'll do fine, the current environment this system will hurt you. Stephen your initial signals are right on but r u out during the day?
I've been following this system for a long time, and Mr Haines in fact treats SMA as if some of his family's money were in it. He is careful to avoid big drawdowns, investing in a conservative manner. Still, returns are pretty decent for the low risk. I would recommend this system for my own family w/o reserve.
System seems to work only on clear strong trending days. On choppy days it will go long and get stopped out and then it goes short and get stopped out and again and again. I am a subscriber since June, made money until August and lose it all.
Do not trade this with 10k you risk loosing your account in 3 days. Recently the system has been performing badly but maybe it will pass or its due to the extreme market conditions. I think i will give it a try again once these contitions stabilize and the equity curve begins clearly going up again. The trader is a nice person.
Yes sept 19th was terrible. But you can't base your judgement of the system on one event. It's gotta great track record and I plan on trading it's next signal.
About a week ago, when there were signs of huge volatile days ahead, I got out of all my ETF based auto traded systems and switched to equivalent futures contract, entering them manually, while still following the system but with the peace of mind of having my discretionary stops in place day and night. That got me safely out with a nice profit (for this system I substituted ES for EMD because EMD has poor liquidity). That begs the question: Why is any system developer still using ETFs when they can use futures instead? By the way, I still like the basic signals of mvp-3.
-The vender is a nice guy.
-Leaving a single position overnight with full margin is not my favorite.
-The risk control for EOD system is very difficult, especially in extreme market conditions. Yes, the vendor did use stop and issue the sell signal after the big rally, but it is too late. You HAVE to watch the market sometime, otherwise stay away from it.
-The volume of MVV/MZZ is too low. I use a combo of SSO/QLD/DDM instead.
About C2:
- Instead of following those high-hands, it is more important to LEARN, and then develop your own system.
-I only use C2 as reference and always set my own stop and profit-taking points. Sometimes I did better, sometimes not, but I know exactly how much I can lose.
-THE MOST IMPORTANT, if you auto-trade C2, ONLY use the money you can afford to lose.
It's a pity to see how today's market intervention by the government (not a bad thing per se) marred an otherwise great record for this system. All subs should be aware that all systems try to repeat what they've learned from past history, and "black swan"events are beyond their reach. Going forward, and barring more intervention, markets should stabilize and go back to trading normally, a situation in which mvp-3 shines.
Only 2 days ago, vendor crowing about his system reaching all-time highs, and yesterday more bragging about 221% annualized return. And that didn't even include the backtested periods, he said. This has to be one of the most shocking reversals of fortune in C2's history, about a highly regarded system's sudden descent into oblivion. There was something about this vendor's supremicist attitude that made me get out a few weeks ago, and glad that I did. In this morning's other review, vendor's rebuttal to the criticism is that government's action today is a one-time, unforseen, watershed event. Hmm . . . funny thing about the stock market - there seem to be lots of unforseen events! Let us look at this 60% drawdown of margined funds and learn a lesson from all this.
At this date Swing It has produced 44.6% over 156 days with a maximum drawdown of 2.8%. 100% of trades have been profitable. Average trade lasts 13.9 days. Trades are done with limit orders. The system has been on C2 for 6 months, but historical record dates back to 3/07. The provider is ultra conservative with this system. WOW what a system!
